Dogecoin ETF Approval: Polymarket Odds and Potential Impact

狗狗币 ETF 批准：Polymarket 赔率和潜在影响

Dogecoin (DOGE), the prominent memecoin, has witnessed remarkable performance since 2025. With Donald Trump's recent inauguration, speculations regarding a Dogecoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) have intensified.

狗狗币（DOGE）是著名的模因币，自 2025 年以来表现出色。随着唐纳德·特朗普最近就职，有关狗狗币交易所交易基金（ETF）的猜测愈演愈烈。

Probability of a DOGE ETF in 2025

2025 年 DOGE ETF 出现的可能性

According to Polymarket, the odds of a DOGE ETF approval in 2025 are currently estimated at 36%, lower than the 70% odds for an XRP ETF. This disparity may stem from market preferences for utility-driven assets.

根据 Polymarket 的数据，DOGE ETF 在 2025 年获得批准的几率目前估计为 36%，低于 XRP ETF 70% 的几率。这种差异可能源于市场对公用事业驱动资产的偏好。

Factors Influencing Approval

影响批准的因素

Despite its popularity, DOGE's high volatility and lack of inherent utility raise concerns among some analysts. However, the emergence of a pro-cryptocurrency administration led by Donald Trump may pave the way for favorable regulations. The appointment of Elon Musk as head of the Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E.) is seen as a potential catalyst for Dogecoin's government-backed recognition.

尽管 DOGE 很受欢迎，但其高波动性和缺乏内在效用引起了一些分析师的担忧。然而，唐纳德·特朗普领导的支持加密货币的政府的出现可能为有利的监管铺平道路。任命埃隆·马斯克为政府效率部 (D.O.G.E.) 负责人被视为狗狗币获得政府支持认可的潜在催化剂。

Market Impact of a DOGE ETF

DOGE ETF 的市场影响

Analysts believe that a DOGE ETF could drive the price higher, as witnessed with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in 2024. However, the ultimate decision rests with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which has not yet commented on the matter.

分析师认为，DOGE ETF 可能会推高价格，正如 2024 年比特币和以太坊 ETF 所证明的那样。不过，最终决定权在美国证券交易委员会 (SEC)，但该委员会尚未对此事发表评论。

Current Market Dynamics

当前市场动态

Dogecoin's bullish trajectory continues, with an 8.2% surge in the past 24 hours, pushing its market capitalization to over $61 billion and ranking it as the seventh-largest cryptocurrency. Onchain analyst Ali Martinez predicts a potential price target of $20 in the coming years. While this may seem ambitious, an ETF approval could accelerate progress towards that milestone.

狗狗币的看涨轨迹仍在继续，过去 24 小时内飙升 8.2%，使其市值突破 610 亿美元，成为第七大加密货币。 Onchain 分析师 Ali Martinez 预测未来几年的潜在目标价格为 20 美元。虽然这似乎雄心勃勃，但 ETF 的批准可能会加速实现这一里程碑的进程。