Litecoin ETF Approval Odds Soar to 90%, Leading Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin - Bloomberg Analysts

Litecoin Leads Race for Spot ETF Approval in 2025

Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have rated Litecoin ($LTC) as having the highest probability of spot ETF approval in 2025, with a remarkable 90% chance. This places LTC ahead of Dogecoin (75%), Solana (70%), and XRP (65%), indicating a significant shift in institutional sentiment towards altcoins.

Balchunas notes that prior to the U.S. election, these ETFs faced meager approval odds of less than 5%. However, the political climate and regulatory landscape have evolved, with the SEC acknowledging the 19b-4 filings for Litecoin ETFs, paving the way for approval.

Why Litecoin Leads the Race

Litecoin's strong approval prospects stem from its regulatory status. As a Bitcoin fork operating on the proof-of-work (PoW) mechanism, analysts expect it to be classified as a commodity rather than a security. Other factors contributing to its advantage include:

• SEC and CFTC Favorability: Unlike XRP and Solana, which have been deemed securities in legal proceedings, Litecoin has been treated as a commodity.
• No ICO or Pre-Sale: Litecoin has never conducted an initial coin offering (ICO), reducing the likelihood of SEC scrutiny.
• Grayscale and Canary Capital Filings: These firms have submitted spot LTC ETF applications that reportedly meet all regulatory criteria.

Dogecoin Follows Suit

Dogecoin ($DOGE) holds a 75% approval probability, primarily due to its shared PoW model with Litecoin and the absence of an ICO. However, the SEC has yet to acknowledge DOGE ETF filings, placing it slightly behind LTC.

Regulatory Hurdles for Solana and XRP

While Solana ($SOL) and XRP ($XRP) have reasonable approval chances, their regulatory status remains uncertain.

• XRP's Legal Battle: The SEC vs. Ripple case remains unresolved, and while a 2023 ruling stated that XRP is not a security when sold on secondary markets, the SEC continues to challenge this decision.
• Solana's Security Status: Solana has been explicitly named as a security in SEC lawsuits against Coinbase and Binance, making its classification a potential hurdle for ETF approval.

However, the SEC and Commissioner Hester Peirce's Crypto Task Force are expected to issue guidance on the security vs. commodity debate by the end of 2025, which could improve the odds for these assets.

Political Shift Boosts Crypto ETF Prospects

Balchunas highlights a change in the regulatory environment following Donald Trump's election victory. The new administration has signaled a more open stance towards cryptocurrency, suggesting a potential softening of the SEC's attitude towards digital assets.

This shift has spurred ETF filings, with Nasdaq recently submitting 19b-4 forms for Litecoin and XRP ETFs on behalf of CoinShares. Additionally, Cboe BZX Exchange has filed applications for XRP ETFs from Bitwise, 21Shares, and Canary Capital.

Growing Market Confidence

Market sentiment towards altcoin ETFs has surged in 2025. Polymarket data indicates that Litecoin ETF approval odds have climbed from 42% in January to over 81% currently.

Analysts anticipate a proliferation of crypto ETFs, with issuers launching multiple products to gauge market traction. It is expected that numerous ETFs will be introduced, with only the most successful surviving the market test.