Litecoin Leads Race for Spot ETF Approval in 2025

Litecoin领导2025年获得现场ETF批准的比赛

Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have rated Litecoin ($LTC) as having the highest probability of spot ETF approval in 2025, with a remarkable 90% chance. This places LTC ahead of Dogecoin (75%), Solana (70%), and XRP (65%), indicating a significant shift in institutional sentiment towards altcoins.

彭博ETF分析师Eric Balchunas和James Seyffart将Litecoin（$ LTC）评为2025年的SPOT ETF批准的最高概率，其机会显着90％。这将LTC领先于Dogecoin（75％），Solana（70％）和XRP（65％），这表明机构情绪对山寨币的观点发生了显着转移。

Balchunas notes that prior to the U.S. election, these ETFs faced meager approval odds of less than 5%. However, the political climate and regulatory landscape have evolved, with the SEC acknowledging the 19b-4 filings for Litecoin ETFs, paving the way for approval.

Balchunas指出，在美国大选之前，这些ETF面临的微薄批准赔率不到5％。但是，政治气候和监管格局已经发展，SEC承认了19b-4 for Litecoin ETF的文件，为批准铺平了道路。

Why Litecoin Leads the Race

为什么莱特币领导比赛

Litecoin's strong approval prospects stem from its regulatory status. As a Bitcoin fork operating on the proof-of-work (PoW) mechanism, analysts expect it to be classified as a commodity rather than a security. Other factors contributing to its advantage include:

莱特币的强烈认可前景源于其监管状况。作为在工作证明（POW）机制上运行的比特币叉，分析师期望将其归类为商品而不是安全性。促成其优势的其他因素包括：

• SEC and CFTC Favorability: Unlike XRP and Solana, which have been deemed securities in legal proceedings, Litecoin has been treated as a commodity.
• No ICO or Pre-Sale: Litecoin has never conducted an initial coin offering (ICO), reducing the likelihood of SEC scrutiny.
• Grayscale and Canary Capital Filings: These firms have submitted spot LTC ETF applications that reportedly meet all regulatory criteria.

Dogecoin Follows Suit

SEC和CFTC的偏爱：与XRP和Solana不同，在法律诉讼中被视为证券，Litecoin被视为商品。没有ICO或预售：Litecoin从未进行过初始硬币（ICO），从而减少SEC审查。掌握和金丝雀资本文件：这些公司已提交了符合所有监管标准的Spot LTC ETF申请。DogeCoin遵循诉讼

Dogecoin ($DOGE) holds a 75% approval probability, primarily due to its shared PoW model with Litecoin and the absence of an ICO. However, the SEC has yet to acknowledge DOGE ETF filings, placing it slightly behind LTC.

Dogecoin（$ DOGE）持有75％的批准概率，这主要是由于其与Litecoin共享的POW模型以及ICO的缺失。但是，SEC尚未承认Doge ETF文件，将其稍微落后于LTC。

Regulatory Hurdles for Solana and XRP

Solana和XRP的监管障碍

While Solana ($SOL) and XRP ($XRP) have reasonable approval chances, their regulatory status remains uncertain.

尽管Solana（$ SOL）和XRP（$ XRP）具有合理的批准机会，但其监管状况仍然不确定。

• XRP's Legal Battle: The SEC vs. Ripple case remains unresolved, and while a 2023 ruling stated that XRP is not a security when sold on secondary markets, the SEC continues to challenge this decision.
• Solana's Security Status: Solana has been explicitly named as a security in SEC lawsuits against Coinbase and Binance, making its classification a potential hurdle for ETF approval.

However, the SEC and Commissioner Hester Peirce's Crypto Task Force are expected to issue guidance on the security vs. commodity debate by the end of 2025, which could improve the odds for these assets.

XRP的法律斗争：SEC vs. Ripple案仍然尚未解决，尽管在2023年的裁决中指出，在二级市场上出售XRP并不是安全性，但SEC继续挑战了这一决定。Solana的安全状况：Solana被明确命名为一个。针对Coinbase和Binance的SEC诉讼的安全性，使其分类成为ETF批准的潜在障碍。提高这些资产的几率。

Political Shift Boosts Crypto ETF Prospects

政治转变促进了加密ETF前景

Balchunas highlights a change in the regulatory environment following Donald Trump's election victory. The new administration has signaled a more open stance towards cryptocurrency, suggesting a potential softening of the SEC's attitude towards digital assets.

唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）选举胜利后，巴尔丘纳斯（Balchunas）强调了监管环境的变化。新政府表明对加密货币的态度更加开放，这表明SEC对数字资产的态度有潜在的软化。

This shift has spurred ETF filings, with Nasdaq recently submitting 19b-4 forms for Litecoin and XRP ETFs on behalf of CoinShares. Additionally, Cboe BZX Exchange has filed applications for XRP ETFs from Bitwise, 21Shares, and Canary Capital.

这种转变刺激了ETF申请，纳斯达克最近代表Coinshares提交了莱特币和XRP ETF的19b-4形式。此外，CBOE BZX Exchange还向Bitwise，21shares和Canary Capital的XRP ETF提交了申请。

Growing Market Confidence

市场信心不断增长

Market sentiment towards altcoin ETFs has surged in 2025. Polymarket data indicates that Litecoin ETF approval odds have climbed from 42% in January to over 81% currently.

对Altcoin ETF的市场情绪在2025年激增。Polymarket数据表明，Litecoin ETF批准赔率已从1月的42％上升到目前的81％以上。

Analysts anticipate a proliferation of crypto ETFs, with issuers launching multiple products to gauge market traction. It is expected that numerous ETFs will be introduced, with only the most successful surviving the market test.

分析师预计加密ETF会扩散，发行人推出了多种产品来衡量市场牵引力。预计将引入许多ETF，只有最成功的市场测试。