Litecoin Leads Race for Spot ETF Approval in 2025

Litecoin領導2025年獲得現場ETF批准的比賽

Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have rated Litecoin ($LTC) as having the highest probability of spot ETF approval in 2025, with a remarkable 90% chance. This places LTC ahead of Dogecoin (75%), Solana (70%), and XRP (65%), indicating a significant shift in institutional sentiment towards altcoins.

彭博ETF分析師Eric Balchunas和James Seyffart將Litecoin（$ LTC）評為2025年的SPOT ETF批准的最高概率，其機會顯著90％。這將LTC領先於Dogecoin（75％），Solana（70％）和XRP（65％），這表明機構情緒對山寨幣的觀點發生了顯著轉移。

Balchunas notes that prior to the U.S. election, these ETFs faced meager approval odds of less than 5%. However, the political climate and regulatory landscape have evolved, with the SEC acknowledging the 19b-4 filings for Litecoin ETFs, paving the way for approval.

Balchunas指出，在美國大選之前，這些ETF面臨的微薄批准賠率不到5％。但是，政治氣候和監管格局已經發展，SEC承認了19b-4 for Litecoin ETF的文件，為批准鋪平了道路。

Why Litecoin Leads the Race

為什麼萊特幣領導比賽

Litecoin's strong approval prospects stem from its regulatory status. As a Bitcoin fork operating on the proof-of-work (PoW) mechanism, analysts expect it to be classified as a commodity rather than a security. Other factors contributing to its advantage include:

萊特幣的強烈認可前景源於其監管狀況。作為在工作證明（POW）機制上運行的比特幣叉，分析師期望將其歸類為商品而不是安全性。促成其優勢的其他因素包括：

• SEC and CFTC Favorability: Unlike XRP and Solana, which have been deemed securities in legal proceedings, Litecoin has been treated as a commodity.
• No ICO or Pre-Sale: Litecoin has never conducted an initial coin offering (ICO), reducing the likelihood of SEC scrutiny.
• Grayscale and Canary Capital Filings: These firms have submitted spot LTC ETF applications that reportedly meet all regulatory criteria.

Dogecoin Follows Suit

SEC和CFTC的偏愛：與XRP和Solana不同，在法律訴訟中被視為證券，Litecoin被視為商品。沒有ICO或預售：Litecoin從未進行過初始硬幣（ICO），從而減少SEC審查。掌握和金絲雀資本文件：這些公司已提交了符合所有監管標準的Spot LTC ETF申請。DogeCoin遵循訴訟

Dogecoin ($DOGE) holds a 75% approval probability, primarily due to its shared PoW model with Litecoin and the absence of an ICO. However, the SEC has yet to acknowledge DOGE ETF filings, placing it slightly behind LTC.

Dogecoin（$ DOGE）持有75％的批准概率，這主要是由於其與Litecoin共享的POW模型以及ICO的缺失。但是，SEC尚未承認Doge ETF文件，將其稍微落後於LTC。

Regulatory Hurdles for Solana and XRP

Solana和XRP的監管障礙

While Solana ($SOL) and XRP ($XRP) have reasonable approval chances, their regulatory status remains uncertain.

儘管Solana（$ SOL）和XRP（$ XRP）具有合理的批准機會，但其監管狀況仍然不確定。

• XRP's Legal Battle: The SEC vs. Ripple case remains unresolved, and while a 2023 ruling stated that XRP is not a security when sold on secondary markets, the SEC continues to challenge this decision.
• Solana's Security Status: Solana has been explicitly named as a security in SEC lawsuits against Coinbase and Binance, making its classification a potential hurdle for ETF approval.

However, the SEC and Commissioner Hester Peirce's Crypto Task Force are expected to issue guidance on the security vs. commodity debate by the end of 2025, which could improve the odds for these assets.

XRP的法律鬥爭：SEC vs. Ripple案仍然尚未解決，儘管在2023年的裁決中指出，在二級市場上出售XRP並不是安全性，但SEC繼續挑戰了這一決定。Solana的安全狀況：Solana被明確命名為一個。針對Coinbase和Binance的SEC訴訟的安全性，使其分類成為ETF批准的潛在障礙。提高這些資產的機率。

Political Shift Boosts Crypto ETF Prospects

政治轉變促進了加密ETF前景

Balchunas highlights a change in the regulatory environment following Donald Trump's election victory. The new administration has signaled a more open stance towards cryptocurrency, suggesting a potential softening of the SEC's attitude towards digital assets.

唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）選舉勝利後，巴爾丘納斯（Balchunas）強調了監管環境的變化。新政府表明對加密貨幣的態度更加開放，這表明SEC對數字資產的態度有潛在的軟化。

This shift has spurred ETF filings, with Nasdaq recently submitting 19b-4 forms for Litecoin and XRP ETFs on behalf of CoinShares. Additionally, Cboe BZX Exchange has filed applications for XRP ETFs from Bitwise, 21Shares, and Canary Capital.

這種轉變刺激了ETF申請，納斯達克最近代表Coinshares提交了萊特幣和XRP ETF的19b-4形式。此外，CBOE BZX Exchange還向Bitwise，21shares和Canary Capital的XRP ETF提交了申請。

Growing Market Confidence

市場信心不斷增長

Market sentiment towards altcoin ETFs has surged in 2025. Polymarket data indicates that Litecoin ETF approval odds have climbed from 42% in January to over 81% currently.

對Altcoin ETF的市場情緒在2025年激增。Polymarket數據表明，Litecoin ETF批准賠率已從1月的42％上升到目前的81％以上。

Analysts anticipate a proliferation of crypto ETFs, with issuers launching multiple products to gauge market traction. It is expected that numerous ETFs will be introduced, with only the most successful surviving the market test.

分析師預計加密ETF會擴散，發行人推出了多種產品來衡量市場牽引力。預計將引入許多ETF，只有最成功的市場測試。