Dogecoin (DOGE) experienced a significant price drop, falling over 70% after reaching $0.48 in December 2024. Interestingly, despite this decline, large Dogecoin holders have been accumulating, suggesting confidence in a potential price rebound.

On-Chain Data Hints at a Dogecoin Price Rebound

On-chain data from Santiment reveals that wallets holding at least 1 million DOGE have increased by 1.24% since early February, even amidst falling prices. Concurrently, active addresses have reached a four-month high, indicating increased network activity.

Dogecoin addresses holding at least a million DOGE vs. price. Source: Santiment

This accumulation by large holders during a price decline often signals a belief in undervaluation and a strategic positioning for a future price increase. The rise in active addresses points to greater network engagement, potentially reflecting growing retail interest. If this increased user activity is driven by genuine adoption rather than speculation or panic selling, it could provide the on-chain support needed for a price recovery. A similar pattern preceded DOGE's substantial price rally in November.

Oversold Conditions Suggest Potential for a 30% Rally

Dogecoin is currently testing key support levels, including a multi-year ascending trendline and the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) around $0.13. Historically, these levels have triggered strong bullish reversals.

DOGE/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

Furthermore, the Stochastic RSI, a momentum indicator, shows a bullish crossover in the oversold region (below 0.30). This often signals weakening selling pressure. In previous instances, this low-level crossover in DOGE has preceded significant price recoveries, including a 400% rally in 2024 and an 88% gain in 2023.

DOGE/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

The primary resistance level is around $0.22, coinciding with the 50-week EMA and the March-April 2024 resistance area. However, failure to hold the current support levels could invalidate this bullish outlook, potentially leading to a further correction towards $0.12, a support level observed in March-May 2024.

Disclaimer: This article does not provide investment advice. All investment and trading decisions involve risk, and readers should conduct their own thorough research before making any investment choices.