The Impact of the U.S. Presidential Election on Bitcoin (BTC)

美國總統選舉對比特幣（BTC）的影響

As the November 5th presidential election approaches, Bitcoin's value is experiencing significant volatility, oscillating around $69,000 with expectations of extreme price fluctuations. Both traders and analysts anticipate substantial swings of up to 10%, depending on the outcome of the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.

隨著 11 月 5 日總統大選的臨近，比特幣的價值正在經歷大幅波動，在 69,000 美元左右波動，預計價格將出現極端波動。交易員和分析師預計，價格波動將高達 10%，具體取決於前總統川普和副總統卡馬拉哈里斯之間的競選結果。

Trump vs. Harris: Potential Election Impacts on Bitcoin

川普與哈里斯：選舉對比特幣的潛在影響

Trump has historically been perceived as supportive of cryptocurrencies, advocating for the U.S. to become a global leader in the space. He has promised to reshape crypto regulations, address policies implemented by Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Gary Gensler, and establish the U.S. as a "world capital of crypto." Harris, on the other hand, endorses a cautious regulatory framework designed to foster innovation while safeguarding consumer interests.

川普歷來被認為支持加密貨幣，並主張美國成為該領域的全球領導者。他承諾重塑加密貨幣法規，解決美國證券交易委員會（SEC）主席加里·根斯勒（Gary Gensler）實施的政策，並將美國打造為「世界加密貨幣之都」。另一方面，哈里斯支持謹慎的監管框架，旨在促進創新，同時保護消費者利益。

According to Polymarket, a crypto-based betting platform, Trump's election odds have fluctuated recently. After reaching 67% in late October, his odds have dipped to 56% as Harris has gained support. This shift coincided with a brief decline in BTC's value below $69,000, resulting in liquidations of approximately $350 million. These swings highlight the market's heightened sensitivity to election outcomes.

據加密博彩平台Polymarket稱，川普的當選賠率近期出現波動。 10月底達到67%後，隨著哈里斯獲得支持，他的勝算降至56%。這一轉變恰逢 BTC 價值短暫跌破 69,000 美元，導致約 3.5 億美元的清算。這些波動凸顯了市場對選舉結果的高度敏感。

Potential for Bitcoin to Reach $80,000 Post-Election

選舉後比特幣有可能達到 8 萬美元

With Bitcoin currently trading at around $69,000, analysts predict that a Trump victory could serve as a bullish catalyst, potentially driving BTC to record highs of $80,000 or more. BTC's near-record price of $73,300 on October 29th suggests bullish sentiment. Investors are speculating on election-driven momentum and increased interest in Bitcoin ETFs. Data indicates significant capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, such as BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) reporting $642.9 million in inflows, bolstering confidence in Bitcoin's trajectory.

目前比特幣的交易價格約為 69,000 美元，分析師預測川普的勝利可能成為看漲催化劑，有可能推動 BTC 升至 80,000 美元或更高的歷史新高。 10 月 29 日，BTC 價格接近歷史最高水準 73,300 美元，顯示看漲情緒。投資者正在猜測選舉驅動的勢頭以及對比特幣 ETF 興趣的增加。數據顯示，大量資金流入比特幣 ETF，例如貝萊德的 iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) 報告流入 6.429 億美元，增強了人們對比特幣發展軌蹟的信心。

Tony Sycamore, an IG Markets analyst, believes a clear breakout above $74,000 could solidify an uptrend, propelling BTC to new highs. However, caution remains; a drop below $65,000 could disrupt the uptrend.

IG Markets 分析師 Tony Sycamore 認為，明確突破 74,000 美元上方可能會鞏固上升趨勢，推動 BTC 升至新高。然而，仍需謹慎；跌破 65,000 美元可能會擾亂上升趨勢。

Volatility and Liquidations Signal Market Jitters

波動和清算預示著市場的不安

Following the decline in Trump's odds on Polymarket, Bitcoin briefly fell below $69,000, resulting in $349.8 million in liquidations, primarily from long positions. This marked the highest liquidation day since October 25th, indicating the fragile sentiment surrounding the election.

隨著川普對 Polymarket 的賠率下降，比特幣一度跌破 69,000 美元，導致 3.498 億美元的清算，主要來自多頭部位。這是自 10 月 25 日以來最高的清算日，顯示圍繞選舉的脆弱情緒。

According to crypto analyst Daan Crypto Trades, Bitcoin could experience "at least a 10% move in either direction" depending on the outcome, suggesting that November 5th could be a turning point. BTC's current weekly close is "not the cleanest," indicating susceptibility to short-term events.

加密貨幣分析師 Daan Crypto Trades 表示，根據結果，比特幣可能會經歷“至少 10% 的雙向波動”，這表明 11 月 5 日可能是一個轉折點。比特幣當前的每週收盤價“不是最乾淨的”，表明對短期事件的敏感性。

Beyond the Election: Interest Rate Cuts and Regulatory Changes

選舉之外：降息與監理變化

Regardless of the election outcome, market participants anticipate continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could further fuel Bitcoin's bullish momentum. Expectations are high for additional easing measures that would increase the attractiveness of alternative investments, potentially benefiting the crypto market.

無論選舉結果如何，市場參與者預計聯準會將繼續降息，這可能會進一步推動比特幣的看漲勢頭。人們對額外的寬鬆措施抱有很高的期望，這些措施將增加另類投資的吸引力，從而可能使加密貨幣市場受益。

Analysts are optimistic, predicting that BTC could surge to $100,000 if conditions remain favorable, especially if a Trump win leads to more lenient crypto regulations. Conversely, a Harris win may result in conservative measures that could slow Bitcoin's upward trajectory.

分析師持樂觀態度，預測如果情況保持有利，比特幣可能會飆升至 10 萬美元，特別是如果川普獲勝導致更寬鬆的加密貨幣監管。相反，哈里斯的勝利可能會導致採取保守措施，減緩比特幣的上漲軌跡。

Conclusion

結論

With the election approaching, Bitcoin stands at a critical juncture. The potential for a surge to $80,000 or a dip below $65,000 has the crypto market on high alert, mirroring political shifts. As uncertainty persists, traders are preparing for significant post-election volatility, recognizing that the results could shape Bitcoin's direction for the remainder of 2024.

隨著選舉的臨近，比特幣正處於關鍵時刻。加密貨幣市場有可能飆升至 80,000 美元或跌至 65,000 美元以下，處於高度警覺狀態，這反映了政治變化。由於不確定性持續存在，交易者正在為選舉後的大幅波動做好準備，他們認識到選舉結果可能會影響比特幣在 2024 年剩餘時間內的方向。

Disclaimer: This article provides informational content and should not be interpreted as legal, tax, investment, or financial advice.

免責聲明：本文提供資訊內容，不應解釋為法律、稅務、投資或財務建議。