The Impact of the U.S. Presidential Election on Bitcoin (BTC)

美国总统选举对比特币（BTC）的影响

As the November 5th presidential election approaches, Bitcoin's value is experiencing significant volatility, oscillating around $69,000 with expectations of extreme price fluctuations. Both traders and analysts anticipate substantial swings of up to 10%, depending on the outcome of the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.

随着 11 月 5 日总统大选的临近，比特币的价值正在经历大幅波动，在 69,000 美元左右波动，预计价格将出现极端波动。交易员和分析师预计，价格波动将高达 10%，具体取决于前总统唐纳德·特朗普和副总统卡马拉·哈里斯之间的竞选结果。

Trump vs. Harris: Potential Election Impacts on Bitcoin

特朗普与哈里斯：选举对比特币的潜在影响

Trump has historically been perceived as supportive of cryptocurrencies, advocating for the U.S. to become a global leader in the space. He has promised to reshape crypto regulations, address policies implemented by Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Gary Gensler, and establish the U.S. as a "world capital of crypto." Harris, on the other hand, endorses a cautious regulatory framework designed to foster innovation while safeguarding consumer interests.

特朗普历来被认为支持加密货币，主张美国成为该领域的全球领导者。他承诺重塑加密货币法规，解决美国证券交易委员会（SEC）主席加里·根斯勒（Gary Gensler）实施的政策，并将美国打造为“世界加密货币之都”。另一方面，哈里斯支持谨慎的监管框架，旨在促进创新，同时保护消费者利益。

According to Polymarket, a crypto-based betting platform, Trump's election odds have fluctuated recently. After reaching 67% in late October, his odds have dipped to 56% as Harris has gained support. This shift coincided with a brief decline in BTC's value below $69,000, resulting in liquidations of approximately $350 million. These swings highlight the market's heightened sensitivity to election outcomes.

据加密博彩平台Polymarket称，特朗普的当选赔率近期出现波动。 10月底达到67%后，随着哈里斯获得支持，他的胜算已降至56%。这一转变恰逢 BTC 价值短暂跌破 69,000 美元，导致约 3.5 亿美元的清算。这些波动凸显了市场对选举结果的高度敏感。

Potential for Bitcoin to Reach $80,000 Post-Election

选举后比特币有可能达到 80,000 美元

With Bitcoin currently trading at around $69,000, analysts predict that a Trump victory could serve as a bullish catalyst, potentially driving BTC to record highs of $80,000 or more. BTC's near-record price of $73,300 on October 29th suggests bullish sentiment. Investors are speculating on election-driven momentum and increased interest in Bitcoin ETFs. Data indicates significant capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, such as BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) reporting $642.9 million in inflows, bolstering confidence in Bitcoin's trajectory.

目前比特币的交易价格约为 69,000 美元，分析师预测特朗普的胜利可能成为看涨催化剂，有可能推动 BTC 升至 80,000 美元或更高的历史新高。 10 月 29 日，BTC 价格接近历史最高水平 73,300 美元，表明看涨情绪。投资者正在猜测选举驱动的势头以及对比特币 ETF 兴趣的增加。数据显示，大量资金流入比特币 ETF，例如贝莱德的 iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) 报告称流入 6.429 亿美元，增强了人们对比特币发展轨迹的信心。

Tony Sycamore, an IG Markets analyst, believes a clear breakout above $74,000 could solidify an uptrend, propelling BTC to new highs. However, caution remains; a drop below $65,000 could disrupt the uptrend.

IG Markets 分析师托尼·西卡莫尔 (Tony Sycamore) 认为，明确突破 74,000 美元上方可能会巩固上升趋势，推动 BTC 升至新高。然而，仍需谨慎；跌破 65,000 美元可能会扰乱上升趋势。

Volatility and Liquidations Signal Market Jitters

波动和清算预示着市场的不安

Following the decline in Trump's odds on Polymarket, Bitcoin briefly fell below $69,000, resulting in $349.8 million in liquidations, primarily from long positions. This marked the highest liquidation day since October 25th, indicating the fragile sentiment surrounding the election.

随着特朗普对 Polymarket 的赔率下降，比特币一度跌破 69,000 美元，导致 3.498 亿美元的清算，主要来自多头头寸。这是自 10 月 25 日以来最高的清算日，表明围绕选举的脆弱情绪。

According to crypto analyst Daan Crypto Trades, Bitcoin could experience "at least a 10% move in either direction" depending on the outcome, suggesting that November 5th could be a turning point. BTC's current weekly close is "not the cleanest," indicating susceptibility to short-term events.

加密货币分析师 Daan Crypto Trades 表示，根据结果，比特币可能会经历“至少 10% 的双向波动”，这表明 11 月 5 日可能是一个转折点。比特币当前的每周收盘价“不是最干净的”，表明对短期事件的敏感性。

Beyond the Election: Interest Rate Cuts and Regulatory Changes

选举之外：降息和监管变化

Regardless of the election outcome, market participants anticipate continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could further fuel Bitcoin's bullish momentum. Expectations are high for additional easing measures that would increase the attractiveness of alternative investments, potentially benefiting the crypto market.

无论选举结果如何，市场参与者预计美联储将继续降息，这可能会进一步推动比特币的看涨势头。人们对额外的宽松措施抱有很高的期望，这些措施将增加另类投资的吸引力，从而可能使加密货币市场受益。

Analysts are optimistic, predicting that BTC could surge to $100,000 if conditions remain favorable, especially if a Trump win leads to more lenient crypto regulations. Conversely, a Harris win may result in conservative measures that could slow Bitcoin's upward trajectory.

分析师持乐观态度，预测如果情况保持有利，比特币可能会飙升至 10 万美元，特别是如果特朗普获胜导致更宽松的加密货币监管。相反，哈里斯的胜利可能会导致采取保守措施，从而减缓比特币的上涨轨迹。

Conclusion

结论

With the election approaching, Bitcoin stands at a critical juncture. The potential for a surge to $80,000 or a dip below $65,000 has the crypto market on high alert, mirroring political shifts. As uncertainty persists, traders are preparing for significant post-election volatility, recognizing that the results could shape Bitcoin's direction for the remainder of 2024.

随着选举的临近，比特币正处于关键时刻。加密货币市场有可能飙升至 80,000 美元或跌至 65,000 美元以下，处于高度警惕状态，这反映了政治变化。由于不确定性持续存在，交易者正在为选举后的大幅波动做好准备，他们认识到选举结果可能会影响比特币在 2024 年剩余时间内的方向。

Disclaimer: This article provides informational content and should not be interpreted as legal, tax, investment, or financial advice.

免责声明：本文提供信息内容，不应被解释为法律、税务、投资或财务建议。