加密貨幣市場何時會復甦？

Crypto is currently in the midst of one of its worst bear markets. The first quarter of 2023 was surprisingly positive, with most crypto assets fetching investors positive ROIs. However, with macro-weakness still prevalent, Bitcoin and altcoins failed to establish a strong rally.

加密貨幣目前正處於最糟糕的熊市之一。 2023 年第一季的業績出乎意料地樂觀，大多數加密資產為投資者帶來了積極的投資回報。然而，由於宏觀疲軟仍然普遍存在，比特幣和山寨幣未能建立強勁反彈。

Bitcoin recently broke below its ascending channel, quashing the recovery narrative. Over the next few weeks, it is imperative for BTC to continue collecting liquidity around the current levels. A failure to do so could result in a drop of up to $15,588 in the worst-case scenario. That being said, the asset will get a couple of chances around $21,351 and $18,126 to redeem itself.

比特幣最近跌破了上升通道，打破了復甦的說法。在接下來的幾週內，比特幣必須繼續在當前水平附近收集流動性。如果不這樣做，在最壞的情況下可能會導致高達 15,588 美元的下跌。話雖如此，該資產將在 21,351 美元和 18,126 美元左右有幾次贖回機會。

In the event of a recovery, BTC would first be tested at around $28,585. If it successfully breaks above, it could rise up to $31,804. However, given the current state of affairs and market sentiment, it doesn’t seem like this scenario will pan out anytime soon. Several analysts in the industry have brought to light the spot-derivatives volume imbalance. In fact, as analyzed in a recent article, any uptrend that has coincided with a spike in open interest has eventually faded. Analyst Dylan LeClair recently asserted that Bitcoin is going to ”maddeningly chop around” until either flows increase substantially or the supply gets sufficiently constrained for the current level of passive flows to send the market up.

如果出現復甦，BTC 將首先測試 28,585 美元左右。如果成功突破上方，則可能會上漲至 31,804 美元。然而，考慮到目前的事態和市場情緒，這種情況似乎不會很快發生。幾位業內分析師揭示了現貨衍生性商品交易量失衡的問題。事實上，正如最近一篇文章所分析的那樣，任何與未平倉合約激增同時發生的上升趨勢最終都會消退。分析師 Dylan LeClair 最近斷言，比特幣將“瘋狂地波動”，直到流量大幅增加或供應受到充分限制，無法達到目前的被動流量水平，從而推動市場上漲。

Also Read: Why is Crypto Crashing Down Today?

另請閱讀：為什麼加密貨幣今天崩潰了？

Bitcoin Historical Trend

比特幣歷史走勢

Whenever there is indecisiveness, looking at historical trends gives a fair amount of clarity. So, let us delve into the monthly performance to understand where Bitcoin currently stands on the path of recovery.

每當猶豫不決時，查看歷史趨勢就會相當清晰。因此，讓我們深入研究每月的表現，以了解比特幣目前在復甦之路上的位置。

Also Read: Dogecoin Averages +24% in Asian Hours but -15% During US Hours

另請閱讀：狗狗幣在亞洲時段平均上漲 24%，但在美國時段平均上漲 -15%

Historically, September has been the worst month for crypto assets. Since 2013, Bitcoin has closed in red 8/10 times. During the remaining two instances also, its returns were insignificant [2% and 6%]. Thus, with several gaps yet to be bridged, it does not seem like September 2023’s tale will be any different.

從歷史上看，九月是加密資產最糟糕的月份。自 2013 年以來，比特幣有 8/10 次收跌。在其餘兩個實例中，其回報率也微不足道 [2% 和 6%]。因此，由於仍有一些差距有待彌合，2023 年 9 月的故事似乎不會有什麼不同。

Also Read: When Will Shiba Inu Reach 1 Cent?

另請閱讀：柴犬何時會達到 1 美分？