加密货币市场何时会复苏？

Crypto is currently in the midst of one of its worst bear markets. The first quarter of 2023 was surprisingly positive, with most crypto assets fetching investors positive ROIs. However, with macro-weakness still prevalent, Bitcoin and altcoins failed to establish a strong rally.

加密货币目前正处于最糟糕的熊市之一。 2023 年第一季度的业绩出人意料地乐观，大多数加密资产为投资者带来了积极的投资回报率。然而，由于宏观疲软仍然普遍存在，比特币和山寨币未能建立强劲反弹。

Bitcoin recently broke below its ascending channel, quashing the recovery narrative. Over the next few weeks, it is imperative for BTC to continue collecting liquidity around the current levels. A failure to do so could result in a drop of up to $15,588 in the worst-case scenario. That being said, the asset will get a couple of chances around $21,351 and $18,126 to redeem itself.

比特币最近跌破了上升通道，打破了复苏的说法。在接下来的几周内，比特币必须继续在当前水平附近收集流动性。如果不这样做，在最坏的情况下可能会导致高达 15,588 美元的下跌。话虽如此，该资产将在 21,351 美元和 18,126 美元左右有几次赎回机会。

In the event of a recovery, BTC would first be tested at around $28,585. If it successfully breaks above, it could rise up to $31,804. However, given the current state of affairs and market sentiment, it doesn’t seem like this scenario will pan out anytime soon. Several analysts in the industry have brought to light the spot-derivatives volume imbalance. In fact, as analyzed in a recent article, any uptrend that has coincided with a spike in open interest has eventually faded. Analyst Dylan LeClair recently asserted that Bitcoin is going to ”maddeningly chop around” until either flows increase substantially or the supply gets sufficiently constrained for the current level of passive flows to send the market up.

如果出现复苏，BTC 将首先测试 28,585 美元左右。如果成功突破上方，则可能上涨至 31,804 美元。然而，考虑到目前的事态和市场情绪，这种情况似乎不会很快发生。几位业内分析师揭示了现货衍生品交易量失衡的问题。事实上，正如最近一篇文章所分析的那样，任何与未平仓合约激增同时发生的上升趋势最终都会消退。分析师迪伦·勒克莱尔 (Dylan LeClair) 最近断言，比特币将“疯狂地波动”，直到流量大幅增加或供应受到充分限制，无法达到目前的被动流量水平，从而推动市场上涨。

Also Read: Why is Crypto Crashing Down Today?

另请阅读：为什么加密货币今天崩溃了？

Bitcoin Historical Trend

比特币历史走势

Whenever there is indecisiveness, looking at historical trends gives a fair amount of clarity. So, let us delve into the monthly performance to understand where Bitcoin currently stands on the path of recovery.

每当犹豫不决时，查看历史趋势就会相当清晰。因此，让我们深入研究每月的表现，以了解比特币目前在复苏之路上的位置。

Also Read: Dogecoin Averages +24% in Asian Hours but -15% During US Hours

另请阅读：狗狗币在亚洲时段平均上涨 24%，但在美国时段平均上涨 -15%

Historically, September has been the worst month for crypto assets. Since 2013, Bitcoin has closed in red 8/10 times. During the remaining two instances also, its returns were insignificant [2% and 6%]. Thus, with several gaps yet to be bridged, it does not seem like September 2023’s tale will be any different.

从历史上看，九月是加密资产最糟糕的月份。自 2013 年以来，比特币有 8/10 次收跌。在其余两个实例中，其回报率也微不足道 [2% 和 6%]。因此，由于仍有一些差距有待弥合，2023 年 9 月的故事似乎不会有什么不同。

Also Read: When Will Shiba Inu Reach 1 Cent?

另请阅读：柴犬何时会达到 1 美分？