The US Stock Market's Concentrated Basket

美國股市的集中籃子

The US stock market has taken a concerning turn, with an unprecedented concentration of value in a select few stocks. Currently, merely 26 stocks constitute half of the S&P 500 index's total worth.

美國股市發生了令人擔憂的轉變，價值空前地集中在少數幾隻股票上。目前，僅有 26 隻股票佔標準普爾 500 指數總價值的一半。

This anomaly breaks historical norms. Records show that the previous low was 36 stocks in late 2023. The current situation marks the lowest concentration since 1980 and potentially since the index's inception in 1957.

這種異常現像打破了歷史常態。記錄顯示，先前的低點是 2023 年末的 36 隻股票。

Tech's Dominance

科技的主導地位

The tech sector has emerged as the driving force behind this concentration. Mega-cap tech giants, such as Nvidia and Microsoft, hold significant sway. The top 10 stocks alone now account for 37.3% of the S&P 500, setting a new modern-day record.

科技業已成為這種集中背後的驅動力。英偉達和微軟等大型科技巨頭擁有龐大的影響力。目前，光是前 10 名股票就佔標普 500 指數的 37.3%，創下了現代新紀錄。

This concentration has cast doubt on the value of diversification, a cornerstone of investment strategies.

這種集中化讓人們對多元化的價值產生了懷疑，而多元化是投資策略的基石。

Nvidia's Outsized Influence

英偉達的巨大影響力

Nvidia reigns as the S&P 500's top performer. Its success, largely driven by its leadership in AI, has become a defining factor for many portfolios.

Nvidia 是標準普爾 500 指數中表現最好的公司。它的成功很大程度上得益於其在人工智慧領域的領先地位，已成為許多投資組合的決定性因素。

"It's basically Nvidia in disguise," observes Torsten Sløk, Apollo's chief economist, highlighting the "diversification illusion" created by this concentration.

阿波羅首席經濟學家托斯頓·斯洛克（Torsten Sløk）評論道：「這基本上是英偉達的偽裝。」他強調了這種集中化所造成的「多元化幻覺」。

Underlying Causes

根本原因

Two key factors have contributed to this concentration: the extraordinary profit growth of mega-cap companies in recent years and their subsequent valuations.

促成這種集中的兩個關鍵因素是：近年來大型企業的非凡利潤成長及其隨後的估值。

The concern lies not only in the concentration itself but also in the underlying forces driving it: the continued flow of profits to the same companies and their ever-increasing market valuations.

令人擔憂的不僅在於集中度本身，還在於驅動集中度的潛在力量：利潤持續流向同一家公司以及它們不斷增加的市場估值。

Crypto's Potential Divergence

加密貨幣的潛在分歧

In contrast to the stock market's concentration, the cryptocurrency market appears to be distancing itself from its former correlation with tech stocks.

與股票市場的集中度相反，加密貨幣市場似乎正在遠離以前與科技股的相關性。

Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency, has gained over 10% since December, while altcoins like Ethereum and Dogecoin have experienced even greater increases.

最大的加密貨幣比特幣自 12 月以來已上漲超過 10%，而以太幣和狗狗幣等山寨幣的漲幅甚至更大。

Analysts remain cautious, recognizing crypto's volatility and its historical association with high-leverage tech stocks. However, factors such as Trump's return to the White House and economic conditions favorable to riskier assets have contributed to optimism within the crypto community.

分析師仍然保持謹慎態度，他們認識到加密貨幣的波動性及其與高槓桿科技股的歷史聯繫。然而，川普重返白宮和有利於風險資產的經濟狀況等因素促進了加密貨幣社群的樂觀情緒。