As Bitcoin plunges, liquidating leveraged long positions in its wake, an analyst in a post on X posits that this could be a prime opportunity for accumulation, citing historical patterns of pullbacks followed by impressive recoveries.

隨著比特幣暴跌，槓桿多頭頭寸隨之被清算，一位分析師在X 上發表的一篇文章中指出，這可能是一個絕佳的增持機會，並引用了歷史上回調之後令人印象深刻的復甦的模式。

Time to Load Up on the Bitcoin Dip?

是時候在比特幣下跌時加倉了嗎？

The analyst presented a chart indicating that Bitcoin is within historical retracement ranges. Historically, when this occurs, prices tend to rebound sharply, surging higher to the delight of holders.

該分析師提供了一張圖表，顯示比特幣處於歷史回撤範圍內。從歷史上看，當這種情況發生時，價格往往會急劇反彈，飆升至讓持有者高興的程度。

BTC Historical Retracements | Source: Analyst on X

BTC 歷史回檔 |資料來源：X 分析師

Solid data supports this assessment. The analyst noted that since Bitcoin bottomed at $15,500 in 2022, there have been four distinct pullbacks, all within the -20% to -23% range. For the savvy, the trader continued, each of these downturns presented an opportunity to accumulate at a discount.

可靠的數據支持了這項評估。該分析師指出，自 2022 年比特幣觸底 15,500 美元以來，出現了四次明顯的回調，均在 -20% 至 -23% 的範圍內。這位交易員繼續說道，對於精明的人來說，每次經濟低迷都提供了折扣累積的機會。

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Therefore, if history repeats itself, Bitcoin may be available at a discount at spot rates. At spot rates, the coin is down by around 23% from its all-time high of $73,800 in mid-March.

因此，如果歷史重演，比特幣可能會以現貨價格打折。以即期匯率計算，該代幣較 3 月中旬的歷史高點 73,800 美元下跌了約 23%。

Bitcoin Price Trending Downward on the Daily Chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Binance, TradingView

比特幣價格在日線圖上呈下降趨勢|來源：幣安上的 BTCUSDT、TradingView

Predicting future price movements is uncertain. However, based on the candlestick arrangement, BTC faces resistance at the $60,000 to $61,000 zone. A clear breakout above this zone could validate the analyst's forecast, potentially triggering a new leg up that could reach $74,000 in the coming weeks.

預測未來的價格走勢是不確定的。然而，根據燭台排列，BTC 在 60,000 美元至 61,000 美元區域面臨阻力。明確突破該區域可能會驗證分析師的預測，並可能引發新一輪上漲，在未來幾週內可能達到 74,000 美元。

Shrinking Spot ETF Inflows, United States Federal Reserve Turns Dovish

現貨 ETF 流入減少，Fed轉向鴿派

Despite the optimism, the possibility of BTC falling below the $52,000 and $50,000 support levels cannot be dismissed. This bearish outlook is also supported by data.

儘管樂觀，但不能排除 BTC 跌破 52,000 美元和 50,000 美元支撐位的可能性。這種看跌前景也得到了數據的支持。

For example, on May 1, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) redeemed $563.7 million worth of BTC. During the coin's rally from February to mid-March, inflows were in the hundreds of billions.

例如，5 月 1 日，現貨比特幣交易所交易基金 (ETF) 贖回了價值 5.637 億美元的 BTC。在 2 月至 3 月中旬的上漲過程中，資金流入達數千億美元。

The excitement was palpable even as Grayscale liquidated GBTC, reducing BTC. The recent spike in outflows suggests that sellers are now in control and spot ETF holders are panicking and looking to exit.

儘管灰階清算了 GBTC，減少了 BTC，但人們的興奮還是顯而易見的。近期資金流出激增表明賣家目前已掌控局面，而現貨 ETF 持有者則陷入恐慌並尋求退出。

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Despite the negative sentiment and predictions of Bitcoin falling to $52,000, another analyst remains positive. Citing the United States Federal Reserve reducing Quantitative Tightening (QT) runoff from $65 billion to $45 billion, the analyst believes that Bitcoin prices could benefit from the "dovish" environment.

儘管負面情緒和比特幣跌至 52,000 美元的預測，另一位分析師仍然持樂觀態度。該分析師引述聯準會將量化緊縮（QT）資金從 650 億美元減少至 450 億美元的說法，認為比特幣價格可能會受益於「鴿派」環境。

Notably, the central bank has indicated that it is unlikely to raise interest rates. Instead, they are considering cutting rates if supportive data shows that inflation is falling towards the 2% benchmark level. Currently, inflation remains elevated but lower than the 2021 averages.

值得注意的是，央行已表示不太可能升息。相反，如果支持性數據顯示通膨正在降至 2% 的基準水平，他們就會考慮降息。目前，通膨仍然較高，但低於 2021 年平均值。

Feature image from Canva, chart from TradingView

特徵圖片來自 Canva，圖表來自 TradingView