As Bitcoin plunges, liquidating leveraged long positions in its wake, an analyst in a post on X posits that this could be a prime opportunity for accumulation, citing historical patterns of pullbacks followed by impressive recoveries.

随着比特币暴跌，杠杆多头头寸随之被清算，一位分析师在 X 上发表的一篇文章中指出，这可能是一个绝佳的增持机会，并引用了历史上回调之后令人印象深刻的复苏的模式。

Time to Load Up on the Bitcoin Dip?

是时候在比特币下跌时加仓了吗？

The analyst presented a chart indicating that Bitcoin is within historical retracement ranges. Historically, when this occurs, prices tend to rebound sharply, surging higher to the delight of holders.

该分析师提供了一张图表，表明比特币处于历史回撤范围内。从历史上看，当这种情况发生时，价格往往会急剧反弹，飙升至让持有者高兴的程度。

BTC Historical Retracements | Source: Analyst on X

BTC 历史回调 |资料来源：X 分析师

Solid data supports this assessment. The analyst noted that since Bitcoin bottomed at $15,500 in 2022, there have been four distinct pullbacks, all within the -20% to -23% range. For the savvy, the trader continued, each of these downturns presented an opportunity to accumulate at a discount.

可靠的数据支持了这一评估。该分析师指出，自 2022 年比特币触底 15,500 美元以来，出现了四次明显的回调，均在 -20% 至 -23% 的范围内。这位交易员继续说道，对于精明的人来说，每次经济低迷都提供了折扣积累的机会。

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Therefore, if history repeats itself, Bitcoin may be available at a discount at spot rates. At spot rates, the coin is down by around 23% from its all-time high of $73,800 in mid-March.

因此，如果历史重演，比特币可能会以现货价格打折。按即期汇率计算，该代币较 3 月中旬的历史高点 73,800 美元下跌了约 23%。

Bitcoin Price Trending Downward on the Daily Chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Binance, TradingView

比特币价格在日线图上呈下降趋势|资料来源：币安上的 BTCUSDT、TradingView

Predicting future price movements is uncertain. However, based on the candlestick arrangement, BTC faces resistance at the $60,000 to $61,000 zone. A clear breakout above this zone could validate the analyst's forecast, potentially triggering a new leg up that could reach $74,000 in the coming weeks.

预测未来的价格走势是不确定的。然而，根据烛台排列，BTC 在 60,000 美元至 61,000 美元区域面临阻力。明确突破该区域可能会验证分析师的预测，并可能引发新一轮上涨，在未来几周内可能达到 74,000 美元。

Shrinking Spot ETF Inflows, United States Federal Reserve Turns Dovish

现货 ETF 流入减少，美联储转向鸽派

Despite the optimism, the possibility of BTC falling below the $52,000 and $50,000 support levels cannot be dismissed. This bearish outlook is also supported by data.

尽管乐观，但不能排除 BTC 跌破 52,000 美元和 50,000 美元支撑位的可能性。这种看跌前景也得到了数据的支持。

For example, on May 1, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) redeemed $563.7 million worth of BTC. During the coin's rally from February to mid-March, inflows were in the hundreds of billions.

例如，5 月 1 日，现货比特币交易所交易基金 (ETF) 赎回了价值 5.637 亿美元的 BTC。在 2 月至 3 月中旬的上涨过程中，资金流入达数千亿美元。

The excitement was palpable even as Grayscale liquidated GBTC, reducing BTC. The recent spike in outflows suggests that sellers are now in control and spot ETF holders are panicking and looking to exit.

尽管灰度清算了 GBTC，减少了 BTC，但人们的兴奋还是显而易见的。近期资金流出激增表明卖家目前已掌控局面，而现货 ETF 持有者则陷入恐慌并寻求退出。

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Despite the negative sentiment and predictions of Bitcoin falling to $52,000, another analyst remains positive. Citing the United States Federal Reserve reducing Quantitative Tightening (QT) runoff from $65 billion to $45 billion, the analyst believes that Bitcoin prices could benefit from the "dovish" environment.

尽管负面情绪和比特币跌至 52,000 美元的预测，另一位分析师仍然持乐观态度。该分析师援引美联储将量化紧缩（QT）资金从 650 亿美元减少至 450 亿美元的说法，认为比特币价格可能会受益于“鸽派”环境。

Notably, the central bank has indicated that it is unlikely to raise interest rates. Instead, they are considering cutting rates if supportive data shows that inflation is falling towards the 2% benchmark level. Currently, inflation remains elevated but lower than the 2021 averages.

值得注意的是，央行已表示不太可能加息。相反，如果支持性数据显示通胀正在降至 2% 的基准水平，他们就会考虑降息。目前，通胀仍然较高，但低于 2021 年平均水平。

Feature image from Canva, chart from TradingView

特征图片来自 Canva，图表来自 TradingView