Analis Kripto Reku: Pertengahan Tahun Kinerja Bitcoin Cenderung Menurun

Bitcoin Performance Outlook: Mid-Year Weakness Anticipated

According to crypto analyst Reku, Fahmi Almuttaqin, Bitcoin's performance has historically declined in mid-years, referring to data from the past 11 years. He suggests that this digital asset reflects complex market dynamics. Nonetheless, the significant liquidity of BTC in the market presents positive prospects.

Indications of Weakness Similar to 2021

Fahmi's analysis draws on data from Coinglass, indicating that in the past eleven years (2013-2023), Bitcoin has seen price declines in August seven times and has only experienced gains four times.

CryptoQuant's analysis reinforces this, highlighting the potential for Bitcoin's price to weaken in the mid-year similar to 2021. The US-based crypto analytics firm employed the Profit & Loss Index, and their Bull-Bear Market Cycle indicator.

Fahmi explains that this situation mirrors the intricate market dynamics that often occur during transitional periods.

"Within the past year, Bitcoin's price has appreciated by over 100 percent," said Fahmi in a written statement to the media on July 31, 2024. "This growth has been accompanied by a significant rise in the prices of altcoins such as PEPE (782 percent year-on-year), FLOKI (657 percent), and Solana (623 percent)."

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Fahmi speculates that this may trigger realizations of profit among investors awaiting favorable conditions, such as the end of the Fed's high-interest rate environment and increased adoption of decentralized applications, currently facing a decline.

Increased Bitcoin Holdings and Fed Meeting to Shape Market

However, Fahmi emphasizes the growing interest in Bitcoin displayed by traditional investors in the United States and the recent accumulation of Bitcoin by "whales," or large investors.

"Data from Bitcoin Holder CryptoQuant indicates a 6.3 percent increase in Bitcoin ownership by whales within the last month, the highest percentage increase since April 2023," Fahmi said. "This reflects the whales' continued optimism in Bitcoin, despite mid-year price weakness projections from some analysts."

The Federal Reserve's meeting on July 31 will also be closely monitored by market participants.

"Although it's likely that interest rates will remain unchanged, the perspectives and outlook presented by Fed officials at the meeting will provide crucial insights into policy direction for the months ahead," Fahmi added.

He notes that the market anticipates interest rate reductions beginning in September (see CME FedWatch chart below). Therefore, any indication of an accelerated reduction in interest rates could trigger a strong positive reaction, or vice versa.

Positive Outlook for Investors

Fahmi highlights that the trend of Bitcoin accumulation by institutional investors, including in the US, is accompanied by a rise in Bitcoin's market liquidity.

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"The magnitude of Bitcoin's liquidity is evident in market dynamics such as the recent influx and subsequent outflow of approximately US$1.15 billion in the futures market on July 29," Fahmi concluded. "[ab]"