Bitcoin Performance Outlook: Mid-Year Weakness Anticipated

比特币表现展望：预计年中将疲软

According to crypto analyst Reku, Fahmi Almuttaqin, Bitcoin's performance has historically declined in mid-years, referring to data from the past 11 years. He suggests that this digital asset reflects complex market dynamics. Nonetheless, the significant liquidity of BTC in the market presents positive prospects.

加密货币分析师 Reku Fahmi Almuttaqin 表示，根据过去 11 年的数据，比特币的表现在历史上会在年中下降。他认为这种数字资产反映了复杂的市场动态。尽管如此，比特币在市场上的巨大流动性呈现出积极的前景。

Indications of Weakness Similar to 2021

与 2021 年类似的疲软迹象

Fahmi's analysis draws on data from Coinglass, indicating that in the past eleven years (2013-2023), Bitcoin has seen price declines in August seven times and has only experienced gains four times.

Fahmi 的分析借鉴了 Coinglass 的数据，表明在过去 11 年（2013-2023）中，比特币在 8 月份出现了 7 次价格下跌，仅经历了 4 次上涨。

CryptoQuant's analysis reinforces this, highlighting the potential for Bitcoin's price to weaken in the mid-year similar to 2021. The US-based crypto analytics firm employed the Profit & Loss Index, and their Bull-Bear Market Cycle indicator.

CryptoQuant 的分析强化了这一点，强调了比特币价格在年中（类似于 2021 年）下跌的可能性。这家总部位于美国的加密分析公司采用了损益指数及其牛熊市场周期指标。

Fahmi explains that this situation mirrors the intricate market dynamics that often occur during transitional periods.

法赫米解释说，这种情况反映了过渡时期经常发生的复杂的市场动态。

"Within the past year, Bitcoin's price has appreciated by over 100 percent," said Fahmi in a written statement to the media on July 31, 2024. "This growth has been accompanied by a significant rise in the prices of altcoins such as PEPE (782 percent year-on-year), FLOKI (657 percent), and Solana (623 percent)."

Fahmi 在 2024 年 7 月 31 日向媒体发表的书面声明中表示：“在过去的一年里，比特币的价格上涨了 100% 以上。这种增长伴随着 PEPE 等山寨币价格的大幅上涨（同比 782%）、FLOKI（657%）和 Solana（623%）。”

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https://blockchainmedia.id/whale-jual-170-milyar-pepe-coin-bagaimana-nasib-token-ini/

Fahmi speculates that this may trigger realizations of profit among investors awaiting favorable conditions, such as the end of the Fed's high-interest rate environment and increased adoption of decentralized applications, currently facing a decline.

法赫米推测，这可能会促使等待有利条件的投资者实现利润，例如美联储高利率环境的结束以及目前面临下降的去中心化应用程序的采用增加。

Increased Bitcoin Holdings and Fed Meeting to Shape Market

增加比特币持有量和美联储会议塑造市场

However, Fahmi emphasizes the growing interest in Bitcoin displayed by traditional investors in the United States and the recent accumulation of Bitcoin by "whales," or large investors.

然而，法赫米强调美国传统投资者对比特币表现出的兴趣日益浓厚，以及“鲸鱼”或大型投资者最近积累了比特币。

"Data from Bitcoin Holder CryptoQuant indicates a 6.3 percent increase in Bitcoin ownership by whales within the last month, the highest percentage increase since April 2023," Fahmi said. "This reflects the whales' continued optimism in Bitcoin, despite mid-year price weakness projections from some analysts."

Fahmi 表示：“比特币持有者 CryptoQuant 的数据显示，上个月鲸鱼的比特币持有量增加了 6.3%，这是自 2023 年 4 月以来的最高百分比增幅。” “这反映了鲸鱼对比特币的持续乐观态度，尽管一些分析师预测年中价格将疲软。”

The Federal Reserve's meeting on July 31 will also be closely monitored by market participants.

7月31日的美联储会议也将受到市场参与者的密切关注。

"Although it's likely that interest rates will remain unchanged, the perspectives and outlook presented by Fed officials at the meeting will provide crucial insights into policy direction for the months ahead," Fahmi added.

法赫米补充道：“尽管利率可能保持不变，但美联储官员在会议上提出的观点和前景将为未来几个月的政策方向提供重要见解。”

He notes that the market anticipates interest rate reductions beginning in September (see CME FedWatch chart below). Therefore, any indication of an accelerated reduction in interest rates could trigger a strong positive reaction, or vice versa.

他指出，市场预计 9 月份开始降息（参见下面的 CME FedWatch 图表）。因此，任何加速降息的迹象都可能引发强烈的积极反应，反之亦然。

Positive Outlook for Investors

投资者前景乐观

Fahmi highlights that the trend of Bitcoin accumulation by institutional investors, including in the US, is accompanied by a rise in Bitcoin's market liquidity.

Fahmi强调，包括美国在内的机构投资者积累比特币的趋势伴随着比特币市场流动性的上升。

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https://blockchainmedia.id/cco-reku-performa-etf-bitcoin-dorong-pertumbuhan-industri-kripto-indonesia/

"The magnitude of Bitcoin's liquidity is evident in market dynamics such as the recent influx and subsequent outflow of approximately US$1.15 billion in the futures market on July 29," Fahmi concluded. "[ab]"

Fahmi 总结道：“比特币流动性的大小在市场动态中显而易见，例如 7 月 29 日期货市场近期流入和随后流出约 11.5 亿美元。” “[ab]”