In recent times, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have witnessed increased popularity. Prominent asset management firms, such as BlackRock and Fidelity, have recently submitted filings for Bitcoin ETFs. Additionally, Grayscale, a major player in the cryptocurrency investment space, has urged the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to consider approving all the proposed spot Bitcoin ETFs simultaneously.
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However, the possibility of the Bitcoin ETF’s approval remained uncertain. Now, according to the latest estimates by ETF analysts at Bloomberg, the odds of at least one spot BTC ETF getting approved and launched this year in the US have been raised.
Based on recent events and new information @ericbalchunas and I are officially increasing our spot #Bitcoin ETF approval odds to 65%. That's from 50% a couple weeks ago and 1% a few months ago. pic.twitter.com/VBLG8EYfoP— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) August 2, 2023
Analysts say the odds of Bitcoin ETF launching up to 65%
According to analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, the probability of a spot Bitcoin ETF being launched this year has increased to 65% due to recent developments. Previously, they had assigned a 50% probability to the same situation.
Seyffart expressed that the timing of the Grayscale case dates is uncertain and subject to speculation. However, they suggested that the most straightforward approach could involve simultaneous approval for all eight filers. These include Grayscale, following the court’s decision to vacate the SEC’s denial.
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The Bloomberg analyst also emphasized that the critical point in the current thesis relies on the possibility of Grayscale prevailing over the SEC in Federal court. In their view, this could trigger a chain of SEC approvals, potentially occurring in the 4th quarter.
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