彭博分析師表示，比特幣 ETF 獲得批准的可能性更大

In recent times, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have witnessed increased popularity. Prominent asset management firms, such as BlackRock and Fidelity, have recently submitted filings for Bitcoin ETFs. Additionally, Grayscale, a major player in the cryptocurrency investment space, has urged the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to consider approving all the proposed spot Bitcoin ETFs simultaneously.

近年來，比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）越來越受歡迎。貝萊德 (BlackRock) 和富達 (Fidelity) 等著名資產管理公司最近提交了比特幣 ETF 的申請。此外，加密貨幣投資領域的主要參與者 Grayscale 已敦促美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 考慮同時批准所有擬議的現貨比特幣 ETF。

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However, the possibility of the Bitcoin ETF’s approval remained uncertain. Now, according to the latest estimates by ETF analysts at Bloomberg, the odds of at least one spot BTC ETF getting approved and launched this year in the US have been raised.

然而，比特幣ETF獲得批准的可能性仍存在不確定性。現在，根據彭博 ETF 分析師的最新估計，今年至少一隻現貨 BTC ETF 在美國獲得批准並推出的可能性已經提高。

Based on recent events and new information @ericbalchunas and I are officially increasing our spot #Bitcoin ETF approval odds to 65%. That's from 50% a couple weeks ago and 1% a few months ago. pic.twitter.com/VBLG8EYfoP
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) August 2, 2023
根據最近發生的事件和新信息，@ericbalchunas 和我正式將我們的現貨 #Bitcoin ETF 批准幾率提高到 65%。幾週前為 50%，幾個月前為 1%。 pic.twitter.com/VBLG8EYfoP — James Seyffart (@JSeyff) 2023 年 8 月 2 日

Analysts say the odds of Bitcoin ETF launching up to 65%

分析師稱比特幣 ETF 推出的可能性高達 65%

According to analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, the probability of a spot Bitcoin ETF being launched this year has increased to 65% due to recent developments. Previously, they had assigned a 50% probability to the same situation.

分析師 James Seyffart 和 Eric Balchunas 表示，由於最近的事態發展，今年推出現貨比特幣 ETF 的可能性已增加至 65%。此前，他們為相同情況分配了 50% 的機率。

Seyffart expressed that the timing of the Grayscale case dates is uncertain and subject to speculation. However, they suggested that the most straightforward approach could involve simultaneous approval for all eight filers. These include Grayscale, following the court’s decision to vacate the SEC’s denial.

Seyffart 表示，灰階案件日期的時間尚不確定，並且可能受到猜測。然而，他們建議最直接的方法可能是同時批准所有八個申報人。其中包括灰度，在法院決定撤銷 SEC 的否認後。

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The Bloomberg analyst also emphasized that the critical point in the current thesis relies on the possibility of Grayscale prevailing over the SEC in Federal court. In their view, this could trigger a chain of SEC approvals, potentially occurring in the 4th quarter.

彭博社分析師也強調，目前論文的關鍵點依賴灰階在聯邦法院勝過 SEC 的可能性。他們認為，這可能會引發美國證券交易委員會的一系列批准，可能會在第四季發生。