比特币ETF获批几率更高，彭博分析师建议

In recent times, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have witnessed increased popularity. Prominent asset management firms, such as BlackRock and Fidelity, have recently submitted filings for Bitcoin ETFs. Additionally, Grayscale, a major player in the cryptocurrency investment space, has urged the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to consider approving all the proposed spot Bitcoin ETFs simultaneously.

近年来，比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）越来越受欢迎。贝莱德 (BlackRock) 和富达 (Fidelity) 等著名资产管理公司最近提交了比特币 ETF 的申请。此外，加密货币投资领域的主要参与者 Grayscale 已敦促美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 考虑同时批准所有拟议的现货比特币 ETF。

Also read: Dogecoin Eyes $0.1 Milestone, What’s Hindering the Surge?

另请阅读：狗狗币着眼于 0.1 美元里程碑，是什么阻碍了它的飙升？

However, the possibility of the Bitcoin ETF’s approval remained uncertain. Now, according to the latest estimates by ETF analysts at Bloomberg, the odds of at least one spot BTC ETF getting approved and launched this year in the US have been raised.

然而，比特币ETF获得批准的可能性仍存在不确定性。现在，根据彭博 ETF 分析师的最新估计，今年至少一只现货 BTC ETF 在美国获得批准并推出的可能性已经提高。

Based on recent events and new information @ericbalchunas and I are officially increasing our spot #Bitcoin ETF approval odds to 65%. That's from 50% a couple weeks ago and 1% a few months ago. pic.twitter.com/VBLG8EYfoP
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) August 2, 2023
根据最近发生的事件和新信息，@ericbalchunas 和我正式将我们的现货 #Bitcoin ETF 批准几率提高到 65%。几周前为 50%，几个月前为 1%。 pic.twitter.com/VBLG8EYfoP — James Seyffart (@JSeyff) 2023 年 8 月 2 日

Analysts say the odds of Bitcoin ETF launching up to 65%

分析师称比特币 ETF 推出的可能性高达 65%

According to analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, the probability of a spot Bitcoin ETF being launched this year has increased to 65% due to recent developments. Previously, they had assigned a 50% probability to the same situation.

分析师 James Seyffart 和 Eric Balchunas 表示，由于最近的事态发展，今年推出现货比特币 ETF 的可能性已增加至 65%。此前，他们为相同情况分配了 50% 的概率。

Seyffart expressed that the timing of the Grayscale case dates is uncertain and subject to speculation. However, they suggested that the most straightforward approach could involve simultaneous approval for all eight filers. These include Grayscale, following the court’s decision to vacate the SEC’s denial.

Seyffart 表示，灰度案件日期的时间尚不确定，并且可能受到猜测。然而，他们建议最直接的方法可能是同时批准所有八个申报人。其中包括灰度，在法院决定撤销 SEC 的否认后。

Also read: Dogecoin Developer Raises Major Alert to DOGE Community

另请阅读：狗狗币开发商向 DOGE 社区发出重大警报

The Bloomberg analyst also emphasized that the critical point in the current thesis relies on the possibility of Grayscale prevailing over the SEC in Federal court. In their view, this could trigger a chain of SEC approvals, potentially occurring in the 4th quarter.

彭博社分析师还强调，当前论文的关键点依赖于灰度在联邦法院胜过 SEC 的可能性。他们认为，这可能会引发美国证券交易委员会的一系列批准，可能会在第四季度发生。