狗狗幣 MVRV 吋逼近 1：DOGE 的價格會下跌嗎？

Dogecoin’s MVRV ratio has been on an uptrend for the last few weeks. From a low of 0.73 registered in mid-June, this ratio is on the verge of claiming 1. At press time, it flashed a value of 0.95. A rising MVRV indicates that the market cap is outpacing realized cap. During such phases, the motive to sell in the market picks up pace.

過去幾週，狗狗幣的 MVRV 比率一直呈現上升趨勢。從 6 月中旬的低點 0.73 開始，該比率已接近 1。截至發稿時，該比率閃現為 0.95。 MVRV 上升表示市值超過實際市值。在這些階段，市場上的拋售動機會加快。

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In 2023, Dogecoin’s MVRV has sustained above 1 thrice. Two such instances were recorded in Q1, while one took place in Q2.

2023年，狗狗幣的MVRV已三度維持在1以上。第一季記錄了兩次此類情況，第二季發生了一次。

Jan. 21 to Feb. 9: Even though the market conditions were fairly bullish during the initial few months of 2023, Dogecoin’s price registered a downtrend when its MVRV hovered above 1. The price depreciated by 11.2% during this period.

1月21日至2月9日：儘管2023年的最初幾個月市場狀況相當看漲，但當MVRV徘徊在1以上時，狗狗幣的價格出現了下跌趨勢。在此期間，價格下跌了11.2 %。

Feb. 16 to Feb. 21: After the first phase concluded and the sell-pressure cooled down, Dogecoin saw a momentary recovery on the price front. However, that did not last for long. When the ratio started hovering above 1 again, DOGE dropped by 7.9%.

2月16日至2月21日：第一階段結束、拋售壓力降溫後，狗狗幣價格出現短暫回升。然而，這種情況並沒有持續太久。當該比率再次開始徘徊在 1 以上時，DOGE 下跌了 7.9%。

April 4 to April 20: DOGE noted its largest MVRV-triggered drawdown in April. With the MVRV revolving above 1 for more than 2 weeks, the asset’s value recorded a net drop of 25.5%.

4 月 4 日至 4 月 20 日：DOGE 注意到 4 月 MVRV 引發的最大規模縮編。隨著MVRV在1以上運行超過兩週，資產價值淨下跌25.5%。

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Dogecoin Market Conditions

狗幣市場狀況

So, if the ratio re-crosses 1, the market conditions will start becoming appealing to sellers. If the bearish pressure rises consequentially, there are high odds of DOGE following the footsteps of its past precedents. At press time, bears were seemingly in control of the market. Except for the 1-hour period, the sell orders eclipsed the buy orders. On the 6 and 12-hour timeframes, the sell side weighed more by over 55 million tokens. So, if this dominance increases, then DOGE might face strong corrections.

因此，如果該比率重新跨越 1，市場狀況將開始對賣家有吸引力。如果看跌壓力隨之上升，那麼 DOGE 很可能會重蹈過去的覆轍。截至發稿時，空頭似乎控制了市場。除 1 小時時段外，賣單多於買單。在 6 小時和 12 小時的時間範圍內，賣方的權重超過 5,500 萬個代幣。因此，如果這種主導地位增加，那麼 DOGE 可能會面臨強烈的調整。

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