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Bitcoin’s current rally: Same story, different cycle?

比特币当前的反弹:同样的故事,不同的周期?

发布: 2024/03/09 17:00 阅读: 297

原文作者:Cryptopolitan_News

原文来源:https://www.cryptopolitan.com/?p=481004

比特币当前的反弹:同样的故事,不同的周期?

When Bitcoin’s price skyrocketed to a jaw-dropping record high this past week, for a hot minute, it seemed like the notorious roller coaster of cryptocurrency scandals and gut-wrenching sell-offs had finally pulled into the station for good. But, as quick as lightning, the price took a nosedive, slapping us with the cold, hard truth: the beast of volatility is always lurking, ready to pounce at anytime.

当比特币的价格在过去一周飙升至令人瞠目结舌的历史新高时,在一段炙手可热的时刻,似乎由加密货币丑闻和令人痛苦的抛售组成的臭名昭著的过山车终于永远停了下来。但是,价格以闪电般的速度暴跌,向我们敲响了冷酷无情的事实:波动之兽总是潜伏着,随时准备袭击。

This year, Bitcoin flaunted a 60% increase in value, hitting the roof at just over $70,000. The spotlight shines bright on institutional investors, who seem to be the puppeteers pulling the strings behind this dramatic curtain rise. According to financial experts at Deutsche Bank, the green light on new spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. has been like opening the floodgates to nearly $8 billion in funds since January 10th. The cash flow into BlackRock’s and Fidelity’s funds alone is enough to make your head spin, with inflows topping $9.2 billion and $5.3 billion, respectively. Yet, this fiesta could have been even more lavish if not for the party poopers at Grayscale, who saw nearly $10 billion walk out the door after switching to an ETF, likely chasing after the new, shinier, lower-cost attractions.

今年,比特币的价值增长了 60%,达到了 7 万多美元的顶峰。聚光灯照在机构投资者身上,他们似乎是这场戏剧性崛起背后的幕后操纵者。德意志银行金融专家表示,自 1 月 10 日以来,美国对新现货比特币 ETF 的批准就像为近 80 亿美元的资金打开了闸门。仅流入贝莱德和富达基金的现金流就足以让你头晕目眩,流入量分别超过 92 亿美元和 53 亿美元。然而,如果没有 Grayscale 的派对扫兴者,这个节日可能会更加奢华,他们在转向 ETF 后看到近 100 亿美元的资金流失,很可能是为了追逐新的、更闪亮的、成本更低的吸引力。

Deutsche Bank’s Marion Laboure said that the crypto market is slowly but surely getting a makeover with a more institutional vibe, as the traditional finance bigwigs elbow their way in. Coinbase, with its regulated futures exchange, broke its own records at the end of February in terms of notional volume. It’s becoming a hot spot for the whales looking to offload their Bitcoin stash. This influx of institutional money is yanking the market away from its roots. The stats are staggering: regulated investment vehicles now cradle over 1 million Bitcoins, a stash that’s grown by 161,700 this year alone, thanks to Uncle Sam’s ETFs. This amounts to over 5.13% of all Bitcoins out there.

德意志银行 (Deutsche Bank) 的 Marion Laboure 表示,随着传统金融巨头的挤入,加密货币市场正在缓慢但肯定地以更具机构氛围的方式进行改造。Coinbase 及其受监管的期货交易所在 2 月底打破了自己的记录。名义交易量。对于那些希望抛售比特币的鲸鱼来说,这里正在成为一个热点。机构资金的涌入正在使市场脱离其根源。统计数据令人震惊:受监管的投资工具目前拥有超过 100 万枚比特币,仅今年一年就增加了 161,700 枚,这要归功于山姆大叔的 ETF。这相当于所有比特币的 5.13% 以上。

The SEC’s white flag in the ETF battle marked a major shift. Gary Gensler, SEC’s chair, may have dragged his feet, but eventually, he unwittingly tipped the scales in favor of stateside, regulated investment vehicles. Meanwhile, the retail investors, who once rode the Bitcoin bull to staggering heights in years past, might feel like they’re watching the parade from the sidelines. Sure, the meme coin craze flickers with signs of life, with Dogecoin doubling up and the new kid on the block, dogwifhat, skyrocketing 800% from a base that’s practically the bottom of the barrel.

美国证券交易委员会在 ETF 之争中的白旗标志着一个重大转变。美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 主席加里·根斯勒 (Gary Gensler) 可能行动迟缓,但最终,他无意中将天平向美国本土受监管的投资工具倾斜。与此同时,过去几年一度将比特币牛市推向惊人高度的散户投资者可能会觉得自己是在场外观看这场游行。当然,迷因币热潮闪烁着生命的迹象,狗狗币翻倍,而新出现的狗币,从几乎是桶底的基础上飙升了 800%。

Yet, as the Bitcoin price swing showed us this week, we’re not exactly witnessing a tamed, institutionalized crypto market. It feels more like the same old wild ride, just with new tracks laid down. However, price setting and discovery are non-negotiables. Crypto exchanges are where the magic happens, facilitating spot trading that helps peg prices to reality.

然而,正如本周比特币价格波动向我们展示的那样,我们并没有看到一个驯服的、制度化的加密市场。感觉更像是同样古老的狂野骑行,只是铺设了新的轨道。然而,价格设定和发现是没有谈判余地的。加密货币交易所是神奇发生的地方,促进现货交易,帮助将价格与现实挂钩。

Last week, when the market was bubbling with froth, Bitcoin trading volumes blasted past the $40 billion mark, a spectacle not seen since the 2021 sell-off. Analysts at Kaiko Research pointed out the stark contrast in buying behaviors between Binance and U.S. exchanges, painting a vivid picture of the market’s dynamics.

上周,当市场充满泡沫时,比特币交易量突破了 400 亿美元大关,这是自 2021 年抛售以来从未见过的景象。 Kaiko Research 的分析师指出,币安和美国交易所之间的购买行为形成鲜明对比,生动地描绘了市场动态。

The curious case of Bitcoin’s price movements continues to baffle many. While some might credit the ETFs for the recent surge, this reasoning seems to put the cart before the horse. The demand surge meets a market still characterized by relatively thin trading volumes, amplifying the impact of transactions on prices. Recent data shows a slight uptick in the percentage of Bitcoins changing hands, but nothing to write home about. The bulk of the market remains tightly held for the long haul, shy of the trading floors.

比特币价格走势的奇怪情况继续让许多人感到困惑。尽管有些人可能将近期的飙升归功于ETF,但这种推理似乎本末倒置。需求激增与交易量仍相对清淡的市场相结合,放大了交易对价格的影响。最近的数据显示,比特币易手的比例略有上升,但没有什么值得大书特书的。大部分市场仍长期处于紧张状态,远离交易大厅。

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