狗狗币 (DOGE) 价格对比特币 ETF 批准有何反应？

Dogecoin (DOGE) price dipped below $0.08 mark in the early hours of Jan. 10, while market data trends suggest a positive Bitcoin Spot ETF verdict could trigger further downside.

狗狗币 (DOGE) 价格在 1 月 10 日凌晨跌破 0.08 美元大关，而市场数据趋势表明，积极的比特币现货 ETF 判决可能会引发进一步的下跌。

Market analysts and speculators are leaning heavily towards an imminent ETF approval verdict from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Recent market data trends show that price correlation between Dogecoin (DOGE) and Bitcoin (BTC) have flipped negative over the past month. This alignment signals a potential DOGE price downswing if BTC reacts positively to an ETF approval verdict.

市场分析师和投机者严重倾向于美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 即将批准 ETF。最近的市场数据趋势显示，狗狗币（DOGE）和比特币（BTC）之间的价格相关性在过去一个月中转为负值。如果 BTC 对 ETF 批准判决做出积极反应，这种一致性表明 DOGE 价格可能会下跌。

DOGE price correlation to BTC has dipped to 5-month low

DOGE 与 BTC 的价格相关性已降至 5 个月低点

Dogecoin, the pioneer memecoin, was created in 2013 as a light fork of the Bitcoin blockchain. Over the years, the fortunes of both Proof of Work (PoW) networks have been closely intertwined.

狗狗币是模因币的先驱，创建于 2013 年，是比特币区块链的轻量级分叉。多年来，两个工作量证明（PoW）网络的命运紧密相连。

In recent weeks, however, DOGE and BTC prices have been trending in opposite directions. Dogecoin price has tumbled 26% from its local top record on Dec 11 to hit $0.078 on Jan. 10. But interestingly, BTC price has climbed 5% from $43,700 to peak at $47,972 during that period.

然而，最近几周，DOGE 和 BTC 的价格走势却相反。狗狗币价格从 12 月 11 日的当地最高纪录下跌 26%，至 1 月 10 日触及 0.078 美元。但有趣的是，比特币价格在此期间从 43,700 美元上涨了 5%，达到峰值 47,972 美元。

The correlation coefficient is a vital technical indicator that quantifies the correlation between the price movements of different assets. The chart below shows that the DOGE/BTC price correlation has declined to -0.52 as of Jan 10, its lowest in 5-months.

相关系数是量化不同资产价格变动之间相关性的重要技术指标。下图显示，截至 1 月 10 日，DOGE/BTC 价格相关性已降至 -0.52，为 5 个月以来的最低水平。

As things stand, Bitcoin and Dogecoin are now inversely correlated. A negative correlation coefficient of -0.53 means that a 10% increase in the price of Bitcoin is likely to be followed by a 5.3% decline in DOGE price.

就目前情况而言，比特币和狗狗币现在呈负相关。负相关系数为-0.53，意味着比特币价格上涨 10% 后，DOGE 价格可能会下跌 5.3%。

With a Bitcoin ETF approval verdict looming, this trend could have a far reaching impact in the days ahead. An overwhelming majority of speculators and market analysts are leaning towards a positive verdict, which could potentially send BTC price into a parabolic rally toward $50,000.

随着比特币 ETF 批准判决的临近，这一趋势可能会在未来几天产生深远的影响。绝大多数投机者和市场分析师都倾向于积极的裁决，这可能会导致 BTC 价格抛物线上涨至 50,000 美元。

Considering the negative price correlation, DOGE price could suffer significant downsizing, if this bullish scenario plays out for BTC.

考虑到价格的负相关性，如果这种看涨情况对 BTC 有利，DOGE 价格可能会大幅下跌。

You might also like: Bitcoin ETF applicants ramp up BTC purchases ahead of SEC verdict

您可能还喜欢：比特币 ETF 申请人在 SEC 裁决前增加 BTC 购买量

Furthermore, on-chain data shows that Dogecoin miners and node validators have recently intensified their selling pressure in the past month. This reflects further confirmation that DOGE is at risk of a major price downtrend.

此外，链上数据显示，狗狗币矿工和节点验证者最近一个月的抛售压力加大。这进一步证实了 DOGE 面临价格大幅下跌的风险。

IntoTheBlock’s Miners’ Reserve metric, tracks real-time changes in balances of coins held in wallets controlled by recognized miners and mining pools. Dogecoin miners held a cumulative balance of 4.49 Billion DOGE as of Dec. 10. But, as depicted by the blue trendline in the chart below, that figure has rapidly dropped to 4.35 billion DOGE at the close of Jan. 9.

IntoTheBlock 的矿工储备指标跟踪由认可矿工和矿池控制的钱包中持有的代币余额的实时变化。截至 12 月 10 日，狗狗币矿工的累计余额为 44.9 亿 DOGE。但是，如下图蓝色趋势线所示，截至 1 月 9 日收盘，这一数字已迅速降至 43.5 亿 DOGE。

This shows that miners have offloaded 140 million DOGE from their cumulative holdings between Dec. 10 and Jan. 10. Valued at the current Dogecoin prices of $0.078, the recently-traded coins are worth approximately $11.13 million.

这表明矿工在 12 月 10 日至 1 月 10 日期间已从其累积持有量中抛售了 1.4 亿枚 DOGE。以当前狗狗币价格 0.078 美元计算，最近交易的代币价值约为 1113 万美元。

Strategic investors interpret a rapid decline in miners’ reserves as a significant bearish signal for 140 million newly-minted DOGE coins into the spot market that dilutes market supply. And when it is not met by a commensurate boost in demand, price decline often follows. Unsurprisingly, DOGE price has dropped 27% during the miners’ latest selling spree in the past month.

战略投资者将矿商储备的快速下降解读为1.4亿枚新铸造的DOGE币进入现货市场的重大利空信号，从而稀释了市场供应。当需求没有相应增加时，价格往往会下跌。不出所料，在过去一个月矿工的最新抛售热潮中，DOGE 价格下跌了 27%。

More importantly, a prolonged selling trend among miners suggests they are pessimistic about the coins’ short-term price prospects. Hence, a growing penchant to sell rather than stack up their reserves has emerged among investors.

更重要的是，矿商的长期抛售趋势表明他们对代币的短期价格前景感到悲观。因此，投资者越来越倾向于出售而不是积累储备。

Given how influential miners are on a proof of stake network, this could influence other strategic stakeholders within the Dogecoin ecosystem to take on bearish positions as well.

考虑到矿工在权益证明网络上的影响力，这可能会影响狗狗币生态系统内的其他战略利益相关者也采取看跌立场。

In summary, the negative correlation with Bitcoin means that Dogecoin price could drop significantly if the SEC issues an approval verdict on Spot BTC ETFs. Also, if the miners selling frenzy continues, it could further accelerate a DOGE price downswing.

综上所述，与比特币的负相关性意味着，如果 SEC 对现货 BTC ETF 做出批准裁决，狗狗币价格可能会大幅下跌。此外，如果矿商抛售狂潮持续下去，可能会进一步加速 DOGE 价格下跌。

Forecast: can Dogecoin price stay above $0.07?

预测：狗狗币价格能否保持在 0.07 美元以上？

Based on the market data trends analyzed above, DOGE price appears to be at risk of a major price correction. But for the bears to validate this price, they must flip the initial support buy-wall around $0.070.

根据上述市场数据趋势分析，DOGE价格似乎面临大幅调整的风险。但空头要想验证这个价格，他们必须翻转 0.070 美元左右的初始支撑买入墙。

IntoTheBlock’s Global In/Out of the Money (GIOM) data groups the current Dogecoin holders by their historical entry prices. It currently depicts that 573,930 addresses had acquired 47.5 billion DOGE at the average price of $0.071.

IntoTheBlock 的全球资金进出 (GIOM) 数据按历史入场价格对当前狗狗币持有者进行分组。目前显示，573,930 个地址以 0.071 美元的平均价格购买了 475 亿个 DOGE。

Given that this is the largest cluster of current Dogecoin holders, the bears could have a hard time breaking down the $0.070 support.

鉴于这是当前狗狗币持有者的最大群体，空头可能很难突破 0.070 美元的支撑位。

However, there’s a risk that a positive BTC ETF verdict could set off a wave of margin calls and stop-loss triggers in the Dogecoin markets. If this bearish scenario plays out, it could open the doors to $0.06 retest.

然而，BTC ETF 的积极裁决可能会在狗狗币市场引发一波追加保证金和止损触发的风险。如果这种看跌情况发生，可能会为重新测试 0.06 美元打开大门。

On the upside, if Dogecoin price rebounds above $0.10, the bulls could effectively negate this pessimistic forecast. But in this case, the 338,590 addresses that acquired 14.97 billion DOGE at the average price of $0.084 could mount a major resistance.

从好的方面来说，如果狗狗币价格反弹至 0.10 美元以上，多头可能会有效地否定这一悲观预测。但在这种情况下，以 0.084 美元的平均价格购买 149.7 亿 DOGE 的 338,590 个地址可能会构成重大阻力。

Failure to breakout of that sell-wall could see DOGE price retrace again.

如果未能突破卖出墙，狗狗币价格可能会再次回调。

了解更多：BTC 和 DOGE 被发送到月球，狗狗币的价格下跌