Timing Bitcoin: Is this the perfect time to invest?

Bitcoin’s resurgence is undeniable. After a punishing period that witnessed scandal, company failures, and a massive drop in value, the cryptocurrency has made a striking comeback, reaching a new high of $69,191.95 on March 5. For a moment, it even surged past the $70,000 mark, uplifting the entire cryptocurrency market including Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin along.

This latest surge has been a boon for cryptocurrency enthusiasts, reinforcing their belief in the long-term potential of cryptocurrencies—a belief encapsulated in the popular crypto slang “hodl.” Meanwhile, those newly interested in the cryptocurrency market are left wondering if now is the opportune moment to invest.

We can’t deny that Bitcoin has seen its fair share of ups and downs. Following a low point in 2019 and 2020, the currency experienced a significant rebound during the initial wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, only to face another downturn in the spring of 2021, made worse by the collapse of the FTX exchange. The current uptick in Bitcoin’s price, however, started around January 10, coinciding with the SEC’s approval of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by major financial companies like BlackRock, Invesco, and Fidelity.

The introduction of these ETFs, which aim to mirror the price of Bitcoin without necessitating direct ownership of the cryptocurrency, has attracted more than $9 billion in net inflows since their inception. Douglas Boneparth, a New York-based certified financial planner, acknowledges the heightened market confidence stemming from this institutional engagement, suggesting a cautious allocation of up to 10% in Bitcoin for client portfolios, signaling a change in investment.

Despite Bitcoin’s notorious volatility and the skepticism it has drawn from the traditional financial sector, attitudes are gradually shifting. Seasoned money managers have witnessed substantial profits from Bitcoin investments across the spectrum, from individual retail investors to Wall Street veterans. This evolving perspective acknowledges the perceived value of Bitcoin in the marketplace, suggesting a potential, albeit limited, role for Bitcoin in diversified investment portfolios.

Peter Mladina of Northern Trust Wealth Management advises a conservative approach, challenging the narrative that Bitcoin can serve as a conventional currency or stable store of value due to its volatility. Similarly, Joseph Boughan from Parkmount Financial Partners highlights the importance of managing expectations regarding Bitcoin’s price fluctuations, advocating for a maximum allocation of 5% in client portfolios.

Adding Bitcoin to an investment portfolio, even in small proportions, can significantly alter its risk profile, akin to increasing stock holdings. This heightened volatility, while potentially lucrative, carries risks, particularly for those needing to liquidate their investments during a market downturn.

The resurgence of Bitcoin has also seen the return of more speculative digital assets, like meme coins and non-fungible tokens (NFTs), which have historically been prone to dramatic fluctuations and speculative bubbles. Experts caution against viewing these trends as sustainable investment strategies, reminding investors of the real risk of loss.

Amidst this, Bitcoin whales—investors holding substantial amounts of the cryptocurrency—have demonstrated a reluctance to sell, despite the recent price peaks. The number of addresses holding at least 1,000 Bitcoins has increased, although it remains below the peak levels of February 2021. This pattern suggests a belief among major investors in Bitcoin’s potential for further appreciation.