Bitcoin’s recent price stagnation has caught the attention of traders and market analysts alike. The largest cryptocurrency is currently confined to a narrow trading range, posing a question that permeates the crypto space: what’s next for Bitcoin? This article seeks to answer this question by diving deep into factors that could shape Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory.

比特幣最近的價格停滯引起了交易員和市場分析師的注意。目前最大的加密貨幣交易範圍很窄，這提出了一個貫穿加密貨幣領域的問題：比特幣的下一步是什麼？本文試圖透過深入探討可能影響比特幣近期走勢的因素來回答這個問題。

We examine upcoming macroeconomic events, such as the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, and their potential to shift market expectations.

我們研究即將發生的宏觀經濟事件，例如個人消費支出（PCE）指數的發布，及其改變市場預期的潛力。

We will also explore the nuanced dynamics of the Bitcoin supply chain, tracking the activities of long and short-term HODLers, and their impact on price. Further, we delve into a detailed analysis by CryptoQuant that illuminates the crucial role of market forces, such as profit-taking by long-term holders, whale activity, and changes in stablecoin demand.

我們還將探索比特幣供應鏈的微妙動態，追蹤長期和短期持有者的活動及其對價格的影響。此外，我們深入研究了 CryptoQuant 的詳細分析，闡明了市場力量的關鍵作用，例如長期持有者的獲利了結、鯨魚活動以及穩定幣需求的變化。

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Finally, we turn to social trends and sentiment indices, offering insights into the prevailing mood of the crypto market. Despite the seeming doom and gloom, there are indications that trader anxiety may be a precursor to a potential market rebound. This comprehensive exploration aims to provide a panoramic view of Bitcoin’s current market scenario and possible future directions.

最後，我們轉向社會趨勢和情緒指數，深入了解加密貨幣市場的普遍情緒。儘管看起來前景黯淡，但有跡象表明交易者的焦慮可能是市場潛在反彈的先兆。這項全面的探索旨在全景展示比特幣當前的市場格局和未來可能的方向。

Bitcoin’s price stagnation

比特幣價格停滯

Bitcoin’s price begins a fresh week nestled within a price bracket that is vexing traders and leaves little room for prediction—so what comes next?

比特幣的價格開始了新的一周，其價格區間讓交易者感到煩惱，並且幾乎沒有預測空間——那麼接下來會發生什麼？

Following a relatively inactive weekend, the leading cryptocurrency lacks a clear trajectory, and even significant macroeconomic events have been unable to disrupt the status quo.

在經歷了相對不活躍的周末之後，領先的加密貨幣缺乏清晰的軌跡，即使是重大的宏觀經濟事件也無法擾亂現狀。

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Approximately 10% under the $30,000 threshold, BTC/USD is merely keeping afloat. Despite predictions for an additional downturn, the market is wrestling with a minimal trading range. Liquidity is available above and below, but as of now, only a hint of a liquidity surge has come to light.

比特幣/美元僅維持在 3 萬美元門檻之下約 10%。儘管預計還會出現進一步的低迷，但市場仍在努力應對最小的交易區間。上方和下方都有流動性，但截至目前，僅出現流動性激增的跡象。

The forthcoming days may hold unexpected macroeconomic revelations. However, experts concur that it would necessitate a notable data shift to dislodge the tenacious Bitcoin.

未來幾天可能會出現意想不到的宏觀經濟啟示。然而，專家們一致認為，需要進行顯著的資料轉移才能驅逐頑強的比特幣。

Conversely, on-chain indicators also depict a period of consolidation following the swift profits witnessed in Q1.

相反，鏈上指標也描繪了繼第一季快速獲利之後的一段整合期。

Where’s the cash flow?

現金流在哪裡？

The current performance of Bitcoin’s spot price is causing traders to furrow their brows—not due to its erratic nature, but rather the absence of it. In what seems like a peculiar set of circumstances, BTC/USD is confined within a few hundred dollar range, with no external factor having succeeded in altering the sentiment.

比特幣現貨價格目前的表現令交易者皺起眉頭——不是因為其不穩定的性質，而是因為它的缺乏。在看似特殊的情況下，比特幣/美元被限制在幾百美元的範圍內，沒有外部因素成功改變市場情緒。

即使是美國聯邦儲備委員會（Fed）主席鮑威爾最近的言論也未能推動比特幣價格上漲或下跌。因此，交易者主要是在等待時機，等待訊號。 Crypto Tony 在 X（前 Twitter）上表示：「如果價格跌破 26,600 美元並以 4 小時蠟燭收盤價鎖定，我會考慮做空。空頭推動我們達到支撐位，但它們能否將我們拉低並收於支撐位以下？”

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The slim range of shy of $27,000 has been Bitcoin’s dwelling since May 13. Beyond that, long and short liquidity is primed.

自 5 月 13 日以來，比特幣一直處於 27,000 美元以下的窄幅區間內。除此之外，多頭和空頭流動性已準備就緒。

來自 Gate.io 加密貨幣交易所的數據表明，價格轉向 25,800 美元可能會引發骨牌效應。其他人正在考慮歷史趨勢，Stockmoney Lizards 將比特幣當前的行為與 2015 年熊市後的表現進行了比較。

Some anticipate that the present price behavior is a precursor to a more substantial drop toward $24,000.

一些人預計目前的價格行為是價格進一步大幅下跌至 24,000 美元的前兆。

However, when considering volatility, Bitcoin is presently at its most stable since the year began, according to data from monitoring resource CoinGlass.

然而，根據監控資源 CoinGlass 的數據，考慮到波動性，比特幣目前處於年初以來最穩定的水平。

Market triggers and interest rate policy

市場觸發因素和利率政策

This week is poised to witness an uptick in macroeconomic triggers, with May 26 earmarked for releasing an array of economic data, including the crucial PCE Index.

本週宏觀經濟觸發因素將增加，5 月 26 日將發布一系列經濟數據，其中包括至關重要的 PCE 指數。

The PCE Index is a critical determinant in the Fed’s interest rate policy formulation, and its readings can rapidly shift market anticipations for rate adjustments. This scenario played out during Powell’s previous address, where the likelihood of a rate hike pause jumped from 60% to 80%.

PCE指數是聯準會利率政策制定的關鍵決定因素，其讀數可以迅速改變市場對利率調整的預期。這種情況在鮑威爾之前的演講中就曾出現過，暫停升息的可能性從 60% 躍升至 80%。

As of May 22, these probabilities persist at approximately 86%, per CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. The upcoming policy decision is slated for three weeks later.

根據 CME 集團的 FedWatch 工具，截至 5 月 22 日，這些機率持續保持在 86% 左右。即將出台的政策決定將於三週後做出。

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The gap between market projections and the Fed’s conservative rhetoric remains significant. Powell addressed this in his recent speech, noting that the discrepancy “seems to be a reflection of simply a different forecast, one where inflation retreats much more swiftly,” and that there’s no absolute certainty of this happening.

市場預測與聯準會的保守言論之間的差距仍然很大。鮑威爾在最近的演講中談到了這一問題，並指出這種差異“似乎只是反映了不同的預測，即通膨回落得更快”，而且這種情況的發生並沒有絕對的確定性。

Moreover, May 24 is slated to release the minutes from this month’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, during which the most recent rate hike was agreed upon. Market players will be keen to dissect the precise language used by Fed members during the session.

此外，定於 5 月 24 日公佈本月聯邦公開市場委員會 (FOMC) 會議紀要，會上就最近一次升息達成了一致。市場參與者將熱衷於剖析聯準會成員在會議期間所使用的確切語言。

另一個爭議問題在於美國債務上限的僵局，談判上週陷入僵局。

Bitcoin supply consolidation

比特幣供應整合

Shifting gears to Bitcoin, on-chain data reflects a period of consolidation for the BTC supply, with a noticeable lack of movement compared to recent months.

轉向比特幣，鏈上數據反映了比特幣供應的整合期，與近幾個月相比明顯缺乏變動。

Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode indicates that the portion of the supply last active within the past three to six months has reached a three-month low. This aligns with the period from December 2022 to February 2023, suggesting that HODLers are refraining from action following last year’s bear market, which paved the way for Bitcoin’s 70% Q1 gains.

鏈上分析公司 Glassnode 的數據表明，過去三到六個月內最後活躍的供應部分已達到三個月低點。這與 2022 年 12 月至 2023 年 2 月期間一致，表明 HODLers 在去年的熊市之後沒有採取行動，這為比特幣第一季 70% 的漲幅鋪平了道路。

Simultaneously, the aftermath of the subsequent downturn is reflected in HODLers’ unrealized profit, currently at the lowest point in a month.

同時，隨後的低迷的後果也反映在持有者的未實現利潤上，目前處於一個月來的最低點。

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This could lead to a reevaluation of expectations among Bitcoin speculators, categorized as short-term holders (STHs) with positions three months old or less. With BTC/USD gradually nearing their current average cost basis, a downward trend is apparent.

這可能會導致比特幣投機者重新評估預期，這些投機者被歸類為持有三個月或更短頭寸的短期持有者（STH）。隨著比特幣/美元逐漸接近當前的平均成本基礎，下降趨勢顯而易見。

Earlier in May, Glassnode suggested that such a profitability “reset” tends to provide substantial price support. However, exploring the STH market value to realized value (MVRV) metric, which stood at 1.15 then, implied that a reset might necessitate a dip below $25,000 before adding that “a deeper market correction may bring the STH-MVRV back to a break-even value of 1.0 at $24.4K”, a point that has “proven to be a support point in upward-trending markets” in the past.

5 月初，Glassnode 表示，這種獲利能力「重置」往往會提供實質的價格支撐。然而，探索STH 市場價值與實現價值(MVRV) 指標（當時為1.15）意味著重置可能需要跌破25,000 美元，然後再補充說「更深入的市場調整可能會使STH-MVRV 重新回到突破點」。甚至價值 1.0 為 24,400 美元”，這一點過去“被證明是上升趨勢市場的支撐點”。

As of May 21, the STH-MVRV stood at 1.047.

截至 5 月 21 日，STH-MVRV 為 1.047。

Analysis of market forces

市場力量分析

CryptoQuant’s recent analysis presents a more nuanced picture of the market forces at play. Specifically, their Quicktake market update on May 17 pointed to profit realization and whale activity as critical factors influencing recent BTC price trends, noting that “the latest Bitcoin price dip was accompanied by Long-Term Holders (LTHs) capitalizing on the year’s highest profit ratio, over 34%.

CryptoQuant 最近的分析更細緻地描繪了市場力量的作用。具體來說，他們5 月17 日的Quicktake 市場更新指出，利潤實現和鯨魚活動是影響近期BTC 價格趨勢的關鍵因素，並指出「最新的比特幣價格下跌伴隨著長期持有者(LTH) 利用今年最高的利潤率，超過34%。

Regarding whales, the same analysis referenced the exchange whale ratio, which hints towards the size of the top ten exchange inflow transactions relative to the total. This downturn is also influenced by whales leading the charge in depositing Bitcoin into exchanges, as evidenced by the early May surge in the Exchange Whale Ratio.

關於鯨魚，同一分析引用了交易所鯨魚比率，該比率暗示了前十名交易所流入交易相對於總數的規模。這種低迷也受到鯨魚帶頭將比特幣存入交易所的影響，五月初交易所鯨魚比率的飆升就證明了這一點。

CryptoQuant 最近的更新揭示了其他有趣的模式。該平台的美國與其他儲備金比率，即“美國實體（交易所、銀行、基金）[比特幣]供應量除以其他實體”，近幾個月一直在下降，表明其資本正在向中心化和去中心化轉變全球交流。

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Additionally, stablecoin demand has declined since February 2022 — the supply has fallen from $99 billion to $71.1 billion. This coincides with the dip in Bitcoin prices, which experienced a 50% drop in the same timeframe. The reduced stablecoin supply across exchanges signals decreased demand for BTC and other cryptocurrencies.

此外，自 2022 年 2 月以來，穩定幣需求有所下降——供應量從 990 億美元降至 711 億美元。這與比特幣價格的下跌相吻合，比特幣價格在同一時間範圍內下跌了 50%。各交易所穩定幣供應量的減少顯示對比特幣和其他加密貨幣的需求減少。

Consequently, despite Bitcoin experiencing a 60% increase in 2023, it remains under selling pressure. This detailed analysis underscores the intricate interplay of various factors influencing Bitcoin’s price behavior.

因此，儘管比特幣在 2023 年上漲了 60%，但它仍然面臨拋售壓力。這項詳細的分析強調了影響比特幣價格行為的各種因素之間錯綜複雜的相互作用。

Prevailing market sentiment

市場情緒普遍

In addition to on-chain analytics, social trends indicate that the prevailing sentiment among crypto market participants is increasingly one of apprehension.

除了鏈上分析之外，社會趨勢表明，加密貨幣市場參與者的普遍情緒越來越令人擔憂。

加密貨幣恐懼與貪婪指數已降至兩個月前的低點。它目前位於中性 50 關口下方，與 4 月 31,000 美元的當地 BTC 價格高點期間的狀態形成鮮明對比。

Accordingly, the general market expectation leans towards further adverse conditions. Although the Fear & Greed Index remains broadly within the “neutral” territory, it isn’t the only measure reflecting traders’ pessimism.

因此，整體市場預期傾向於進一步不利的情況。儘管恐懼與貪婪指數仍大致處於「中性」區域，但這並不是反映交易者悲觀情緒的唯一指標。

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Research firm Santiment noted on May 19 that “as Bitcoin retests the $26k mark, there is a noticeable surge in trader anxiety, with fears of prices potentially returning to the $20k to $25k range.” They also added that “the social dominance of BTC has seen a significant spike, a phenomenon typically associated with fear. Such fear signals often precede a market rebound.”

研究公司 Santiment 於 5 月 19 日指出，“隨著比特幣重新測試 26,000 美元大關，交易者的焦慮明顯加劇，擔心價格可能回到 20,000 美元至 25,000 美元區間。”他們還補充說，「比特幣的社會主導地位已經大幅上升，這種現象通常與恐懼有關。這種恐懼訊號往往先於市場反彈。”

Final words

最後的話

While Bitcoin’s current trading range and lackluster price action may present a landscape of stagnation and uncertainty, it’s essential to recognize the inherent dynamism and resilience of the cryptocurrency market. The myriad factors discussed – macroeconomic triggers, on-chain data, market forces, and prevailing sentiment – all contribute to a complex, ever-shifting panorama.

雖然比特幣當前的交易範圍和低迷的價格走勢可能會呈現出停滯和不確定性的景象，但認識到加密貨幣市場固有的活力和彈性至關重要。所討論的無數因素——宏觀經濟觸發因素、鏈上數據、市場力量和普遍情緒——都構成了一幅複雜、不斷變化的圖景。

Despite the current air of apprehension, history has repeatedly demonstrated that such periods of consolidation and anxiety often lay the groundwork for subsequent rebounds. Moreover, the evidence of trader fear, indicated by indices such as the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, could be a precursor to a market turnaround, as fear signals have often preceded rebounds.

儘管目前存在著憂慮氣氛，但歷史一再證明，這種盤整和焦慮時期往往為隨後的反彈奠定基礎。此外，加密貨幣恐懼與貪婪指數等指數所顯示的交易者恐懼的證據可能是市場好轉的先兆，因為恐懼訊號通常先於反彈。

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The continual evolution of Bitcoin’s market dynamics underscores the importance of a comprehensive and multifaceted analysis. While the short-term picture may seem daunting, an optimistic perspective looks beyond the immediate fluctuations to the long-term potential of Bitcoin. As we navigate the uncertainties of the current market, it is crucial to remember the transformative power and resilience that Bitcoin has displayed over the years. The potential for a rebound remains a constant, underlining Bitcoin’s enduring appeal and ability to surprise, evolve, and grow.

比特幣市場動態的不斷演變凸顯了全面、多面向分析的重要性。雖然短期前景可能令人望而生畏，但樂觀的觀點不僅限於短期波動，還應關注比特​​幣的長期潛力。當我們應對當前市場的不確定性時，記住比特幣多年來所表現出的變革力量和彈性至關重要。反彈的潛力仍然存在，突顯了比特幣持久的吸引力以及令人驚訝、發展和成長的能力。

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