Bitcoin’s recent price stagnation has caught the attention of traders and market analysts alike. The largest cryptocurrency is currently confined to a narrow trading range, posing a question that permeates the crypto space: what’s next for Bitcoin? This article seeks to answer this question by diving deep into factors that could shape Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory.

比特币最近的价格停滞引起了交易员和市场分析师的关注。目前最大的加密货币交易范围很窄，这提出了一个贯穿加密货币领域的问题：比特币的下一步是什么？本文试图通过深入探讨可能影响比特币近期走势的因素来回答这个问题。

We examine upcoming macroeconomic events, such as the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, and their potential to shift market expectations.

我们研究即将发生的宏观经济事件，例如个人消费支出（PCE）指数的发布，及其改变市场预期的潜力。

We will also explore the nuanced dynamics of the Bitcoin supply chain, tracking the activities of long and short-term HODLers, and their impact on price. Further, we delve into a detailed analysis by CryptoQuant that illuminates the crucial role of market forces, such as profit-taking by long-term holders, whale activity, and changes in stablecoin demand.

我们还将探索比特币供应链的微妙动态，跟踪长期和短期持有者的活动及其对价格的影响。此外，我们深入研究了 CryptoQuant 的详细分析，该分析阐明了市场力量的关键作用，例如长期持有者的获利了结、鲸鱼活动以及稳定币需求的变化。

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Finally, we turn to social trends and sentiment indices, offering insights into the prevailing mood of the crypto market. Despite the seeming doom and gloom, there are indications that trader anxiety may be a precursor to a potential market rebound. This comprehensive exploration aims to provide a panoramic view of Bitcoin’s current market scenario and possible future directions.

最后，我们转向社会趋势和情绪指数，深入了解加密货币市场的普遍情绪。尽管看上去前景黯淡，但有迹象表明交易者的焦虑可能是市场潜在反弹的先兆。这一全面的探索旨在全景展示比特币当前的市场格局和未来可能的方向。

Bitcoin’s price stagnation

比特币价格停滞

Bitcoin’s price begins a fresh week nestled within a price bracket that is vexing traders and leaves little room for prediction—so what comes next?

比特币的价格开始了新的一周，其价格区间让交易者感到烦恼，并且几乎没有预测空间——那么接下来会发生什么呢？

Following a relatively inactive weekend, the leading cryptocurrency lacks a clear trajectory, and even significant macroeconomic events have been unable to disrupt the status quo.

在经历了相对不活跃的周末之后，领先的加密货币缺乏清晰的轨迹，即使是重大的宏观经济事件也无法扰乱现状。

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Approximately 10% under the $30,000 threshold, BTC/USD is merely keeping afloat. Despite predictions for an additional downturn, the market is wrestling with a minimal trading range. Liquidity is available above and below, but as of now, only a hint of a liquidity surge has come to light.

比特币/美元仅维持在 30,000 美元门槛之下约 10%。尽管预计还会出现进一步的低迷，但市场仍在努力应对最小的交易区间。上方和下方都有流动性，但截至目前，仅出现流动性激增的迹象。

The forthcoming days may hold unexpected macroeconomic revelations. However, experts concur that it would necessitate a notable data shift to dislodge the tenacious Bitcoin.

未来几天可能会出现意想不到的宏观经济启示。然而，专家们一致认为，需要进行显着的数据转移才能驱逐顽强的比特币。

Conversely, on-chain indicators also depict a period of consolidation following the swift profits witnessed in Q1.

相反，链上指标也描绘了继第一季度快速盈利之后的一段整合期。

Where’s the cash flow?

现金流在哪里？

The current performance of Bitcoin’s spot price is causing traders to furrow their brows—not due to its erratic nature, but rather the absence of it. In what seems like a peculiar set of circumstances, BTC/USD is confined within a few hundred dollar range, with no external factor having succeeded in altering the sentiment.

比特币现货价格目前的表现令交易者皱起眉头——不是因为其不稳定的性质，而是因为它的缺乏。在看似特殊的情况下，比特币/美元被限制在几百美元的范围内，没有外部因素成功改变市场情绪。

即使是美国联邦储备委员会（美联储）主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔最近的言论也未能推动比特币价格上涨或下跌。因此，交易者主要是在等待时机，等待信号。 Crypto Tony 在 X（前 Twitter）上表示：“如果价格跌破 26,600 美元并以 4 小时蜡烛收盘价锁定，我会考虑做空。空头推动我们达到支撑位，但它们能否将我们拉低并收于支撑位以下？”

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The slim range of shy of $27,000 has been Bitcoin’s dwelling since May 13. Beyond that, long and short liquidity is primed.

自 5 月 13 日以来，比特币一直处于 27,000 美元以下的窄幅区间内。除此之外，多头和空头流动性已准备就绪。

来自 Gate.io 加密货币交易所的数据表明，价格转向 25,800 美元可能会引发多米诺骨牌效应。其他人正在考虑历史趋势，Stockmoney Lizards 将比特币当前的行为与 2015 年熊市后的表现进行了比较。

Some anticipate that the present price behavior is a precursor to a more substantial drop toward $24,000.

一些人预计目前的价格行为是价格进一步大幅下跌至 24,000 美元的前兆。

However, when considering volatility, Bitcoin is presently at its most stable since the year began, according to data from monitoring resource CoinGlass.

然而，根据监测资源 CoinGlass 的数据，考虑到波动性，比特币目前处于年初以来最稳定的水平。

Market triggers and interest rate policy

市场触发因素和利率政策

This week is poised to witness an uptick in macroeconomic triggers, with May 26 earmarked for releasing an array of economic data, including the crucial PCE Index.

本周宏观经济触发因素将有所增加，5 月 26 日将发布一系列经济数据，其中包括至关重要的 PCE 指数。

The PCE Index is a critical determinant in the Fed’s interest rate policy formulation, and its readings can rapidly shift market anticipations for rate adjustments. This scenario played out during Powell’s previous address, where the likelihood of a rate hike pause jumped from 60% to 80%.

PCE指数是美联储利率政策制定的关键决定因素，其读数可以迅速改变市场对利率调整的预期。这种情况在鲍威尔之前的讲话中就曾出现过，暂停加息的可能性从 60% 跃升至 80%。

As of May 22, these probabilities persist at approximately 86%, per CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. The upcoming policy decision is slated for three weeks later.

根据 CME 集团的 FedWatch 工具，截至 5 月 22 日，这些概率持续保持在 86% 左右。即将出台的政策决定将于三周后做出。

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The gap between market projections and the Fed’s conservative rhetoric remains significant. Powell addressed this in his recent speech, noting that the discrepancy “seems to be a reflection of simply a different forecast, one where inflation retreats much more swiftly,” and that there’s no absolute certainty of this happening.

市场预测与美联储的保守言论之间的差距仍然很大。鲍威尔在最近的讲话中谈到了这一问题，并指出这种差异“似乎只是反映了不同的预测，即通胀回落得更快”，而且这种情况的发生并没有绝对的确定性。

Moreover, May 24 is slated to release the minutes from this month’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, during which the most recent rate hike was agreed upon. Market players will be keen to dissect the precise language used by Fed members during the session.

此外，定于 5 月 24 日公布本月联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 会议纪要，会上就最近一次加息达成了一致。市场参与者将热衷于剖析美联储成员在会议期间使用的确切语言。

另一个争议问题在于美国债务上限的僵局，谈判上周陷入僵局。

Bitcoin supply consolidation

比特币供应整合

Shifting gears to Bitcoin, on-chain data reflects a period of consolidation for the BTC supply, with a noticeable lack of movement compared to recent months.

转向比特币，链上数据反映了比特币供应的整合期，与近几个月相比明显缺乏变动。

Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode indicates that the portion of the supply last active within the past three to six months has reached a three-month low. This aligns with the period from December 2022 to February 2023, suggesting that HODLers are refraining from action following last year’s bear market, which paved the way for Bitcoin’s 70% Q1 gains.

链上分析公司 Glassnode 的数据表明，过去三到六个月内最后活跃的供应部分已达到三个月低点。这与 2022 年 12 月至 2023 年 2 月期间一致，表明 HODLers 在去年的熊市之后没有采取行动，这为比特币第一季度 70% 的涨幅铺平了道路。

Simultaneously, the aftermath of the subsequent downturn is reflected in HODLers’ unrealized profit, currently at the lowest point in a month.

与此同时，随后的低迷的后果也反映在持有者的未实现利润上，目前处于一个月来的最低点。

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This could lead to a reevaluation of expectations among Bitcoin speculators, categorized as short-term holders (STHs) with positions three months old or less. With BTC/USD gradually nearing their current average cost basis, a downward trend is apparent.

这可能会导致比特币投机者重新评估预期，这些投机者被归类为持有三个月或更短头寸的短期持有者（STH）。随着比特币/美元逐渐接近当前的平均成本基础，下降趋势显而易见。

Earlier in May, Glassnode suggested that such a profitability “reset” tends to provide substantial price support. However, exploring the STH market value to realized value (MVRV) metric, which stood at 1.15 then, implied that a reset might necessitate a dip below $25,000 before adding that “a deeper market correction may bring the STH-MVRV back to a break-even value of 1.0 at $24.4K”, a point that has “proven to be a support point in upward-trending markets” in the past.

5 月初，Glassnode 表示，这种盈利能力“重置”往往会提供实质性的价格支撑。然而，探索 STH 市场价值与实现价值 (MVRV) 指标（当时为 1.15）意味着重置可能需要跌破 25,000 美元，然后再补充说“更深入的市场调整可能会使 STH-MVRV 重新回到突破点”。甚至价值 1.0 为 24,400 美元”，这一点过去“被证明是上升趋势市场的支撑点”。

As of May 21, the STH-MVRV stood at 1.047.

截至 5 月 21 日，STH-MVRV 为 1.047。

Analysis of market forces

市场力量分析

CryptoQuant’s recent analysis presents a more nuanced picture of the market forces at play. Specifically, their Quicktake market update on May 17 pointed to profit realization and whale activity as critical factors influencing recent BTC price trends, noting that “the latest Bitcoin price dip was accompanied by Long-Term Holders (LTHs) capitalizing on the year’s highest profit ratio, over 34%.

CryptoQuant 最近的分析更加细致地描绘了市场力量的作用。具体来说，他们 5 月 17 日的 Quicktake 市场更新指出，利润实现和鲸鱼活动是影响近期 BTC 价格趋势的关键因素，并指出“最新的比特币价格下跌伴随着长期持有者 (LTH) 利用今年最高的利润率，超过34%。

Regarding whales, the same analysis referenced the exchange whale ratio, which hints towards the size of the top ten exchange inflow transactions relative to the total. This downturn is also influenced by whales leading the charge in depositing Bitcoin into exchanges, as evidenced by the early May surge in the Exchange Whale Ratio.

关于鲸鱼，同一分析引用了交易所鲸鱼比率，该比率暗示了前十名交易所流入交易相对于总数的规模。这种低迷还受到鲸鱼带头将比特币存入交易所的影响，五月初交易所鲸鱼比率的飙升就证明了这一点。

CryptoQuant 最近的更新揭示了其他有趣的模式。该平台的美国与其他储备金比率，即“美国实体（交易所、银行、基金）[比特币]供应量除以其他实体”，近几个月一直在下降，表明其资本正在向中心化和去中心化转变全球交流。

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Additionally, stablecoin demand has declined since February 2022 — the supply has fallen from $99 billion to $71.1 billion. This coincides with the dip in Bitcoin prices, which experienced a 50% drop in the same timeframe. The reduced stablecoin supply across exchanges signals decreased demand for BTC and other cryptocurrencies.

此外，自 2022 年 2 月以来，稳定币需求有所下降——供应量从 990 亿美元降至 711 亿美元。这与比特币价格的下跌相吻合，比特币价格在同一时间范围内下跌了 50%。各交易所稳定币供应量的减少表明对比特币和其他加密货币的需求减少。

Consequently, despite Bitcoin experiencing a 60% increase in 2023, it remains under selling pressure. This detailed analysis underscores the intricate interplay of various factors influencing Bitcoin’s price behavior.

因此，尽管比特币在 2023 年上涨了 60%，但它仍然面临抛售压力。这项详细的分析强调了影响比特币价格行为的各种因素之间错综复杂的相互作用。

Prevailing market sentiment

市场情绪普遍

In addition to on-chain analytics, social trends indicate that the prevailing sentiment among crypto market participants is increasingly one of apprehension.

除了链上分析之外，社会趋势表明，加密货币市场参与者的普遍情绪越来越令人担忧。

加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数已降至两个月前的低点。它目前位于中性 50 关口下方，与 4 月份 31,000 美元的当地 BTC 价格高点期间的状态形成鲜明对比。

Accordingly, the general market expectation leans towards further adverse conditions. Although the Fear & Greed Index remains broadly within the “neutral” territory, it isn’t the only measure reflecting traders’ pessimism.

因此，总体市场预期倾向于进一步不利的情况。尽管恐惧与贪婪指数仍大体处于“中性”区域，但这并不是反映交易者悲观情绪的唯一指标。

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Research firm Santiment noted on May 19 that “as Bitcoin retests the $26k mark, there is a noticeable surge in trader anxiety, with fears of prices potentially returning to the $20k to $25k range.” They also added that “the social dominance of BTC has seen a significant spike, a phenomenon typically associated with fear. Such fear signals often precede a market rebound.”

研究公司 Santiment 于 5 月 19 日指出，“随着比特币重新测试 26,000 美元大关，交易者的焦虑明显加剧，担心价格可能回到 20,000 美元至 25,000 美元区间。”他们还补充说，“比特币的社会主导地位已经大幅上升，这种现象通常与恐惧有关。这种恐惧信号往往先于市场反弹。”

Final words

最后的话

While Bitcoin’s current trading range and lackluster price action may present a landscape of stagnation and uncertainty, it’s essential to recognize the inherent dynamism and resilience of the cryptocurrency market. The myriad factors discussed – macroeconomic triggers, on-chain data, market forces, and prevailing sentiment – all contribute to a complex, ever-shifting panorama.

虽然比特币当前的交易区间和低迷的价格走势可能会呈现出停滞和不确定性的景象，但认识到加密货币市场固有的活力和弹性至关重要。所讨论的无数因素——宏观经济触发因素、链上数据、市场力量和普遍情绪——都构成了一幅复杂、不断变化的图景。

Despite the current air of apprehension, history has repeatedly demonstrated that such periods of consolidation and anxiety often lay the groundwork for subsequent rebounds. Moreover, the evidence of trader fear, indicated by indices such as the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, could be a precursor to a market turnaround, as fear signals have often preceded rebounds.

尽管目前存在忧虑气氛，但历史一再证明，这种盘整和焦虑时期往往为随后的反弹奠定基础。此外，加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数等指数所表明的交易者恐惧的证据可能是市场好转的先兆，因为恐惧信号通常先于反弹。

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The continual evolution of Bitcoin’s market dynamics underscores the importance of a comprehensive and multifaceted analysis. While the short-term picture may seem daunting, an optimistic perspective looks beyond the immediate fluctuations to the long-term potential of Bitcoin. As we navigate the uncertainties of the current market, it is crucial to remember the transformative power and resilience that Bitcoin has displayed over the years. The potential for a rebound remains a constant, underlining Bitcoin’s enduring appeal and ability to surprise, evolve, and grow.

比特币市场动态的不断演变凸显了全面、多方面分析的重要性。虽然短期前景可能令人望而生畏，但乐观的观点不仅仅局限于短期波动，还应关注比特币的长期潜力。当我们应对当前市场的不确定性时，记住比特币多年来所表现出的变革力量和弹性至关重要。反弹的潜力仍然存在，突显了比特币持久的吸引力以及令人惊讶、发展和增长的能力。

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