Why Investing in 'Ethereum Beta' Altcoins Is Generally a Mistake

為什麼投資「以太坊 Beta」山寨幣通常是個錯誤

In a research report released on July 18, 2024, crypto researcher Thor Hartvigsen cautioned against investing in high-beta altcoins within the Ethereum ecosystem as a leveraged strategy, especially with the upcoming launch of spot Ethereum ETFs in the United States.

在2024 年7 月18 日發布的一份研究報告中，加密貨幣研究員Thor Hartvigsen 警告不要將投資以太坊生態系統內的高貝塔山寨幣作為槓桿策略，尤其是在美國即將推出現貨以太坊ETF 的情況下。

Hartvigsen's analysis, titled "ETH Beta – a Recipe for Disaster?," investigates whether buying ETH-correlated altcoins, known as 'ETH betas,' is a viable investment strategy. These altcoins, including OP, ARB, MANTA, MNT, METIS, GNO, CANTO, IMX, STRK, MKR, AAVE, SNX, FXS, LDO, PENDLE, ENS, LINK, PEPE, DOGE, SOL, AVAX, BNB, and TON, are typically assumed to offer amplified exposure to Ethereum price movements, with higher volatility than Ethereum itself.

Hartvigsen 的分析題為“ETH Beta – 災難的根源？”，調查了購買與 ETH 相關的山寨幣（稱為“ETH beta”）是否是一種可行的投資策略。這些山寨幣，包括 OP、ARB、MANTA、MNT、METIS、GNO、CANTO、IMX、STRK、MKR、AAVE、SNX、FXS、LDO、PENDLE、ENS、LINK、PEPE、DOGE、SOL、AVAX、BNB 和 TON ，通常被認為會放大以太坊價格變動的風險，其波動性比以太坊本身更高。

The report examines several key areas: price performance, correlation, beta coefficients, and risk-adjusted returns. Hartvigsen highlights the inherent risks and inefficiencies of relying on these altcoins for enhanced Ethereum exposure.

該報告研究了幾個關鍵領域：價格表現、相關性、貝塔係數和風險調整回報。哈特維森強調了依靠這些山寨幣來增強以太坊曝光度的固有風險和低效率。

Price Performance

性價比

Hartvigsen notes that "the ratio of altcoin market cap to Ethereum market cap is currently at 1.48. Since 2020, it has only been this low on a few occasions, indicating ETH's outperformance relative to most altcoins." This historical context suggests that it may be difficult for altcoins to outperform Ethereum in the future.

Hartvigsen 指出，“山寨幣市值與以太坊市值之比目前為 1.48。自 2020 年以來，只有幾次達到如此低的水平，這表明 ETH 的表現優於大多數山寨幣。”這一歷史背景表明，山寨幣未來可能很難超越以太坊。

Correlation

相關性

Hartvigsen's analysis shows that most altcoins have a positive correlation with Ethereum. However, he cautions that this does not guarantee similar performance outcomes, especially in the current crypto cycle.

Hartvigsen 的分析表明，大多數山寨幣與以太坊呈正相關。然而，他警告說，這並不能保證類似的性能結果，特別是在當前的加密週期中。

Beta

貝塔

When comparing the volatility of altcoins to Ethereum, Hartvigsen found that "only a few alts have a high beta coefficient relative to ETH: PEPE, METIS, ENS, and PENDLE." While these altcoins may offer higher potential returns, they also carry significantly higher risk.

在將山寨幣與以太坊的波動性進行比較時，Hartvigsen 發現“只有少數山寨幣相對於 ETH 具有較高的貝塔係數：PEPE、METIS、ENS 和 PENDLE。”雖然這些山寨幣可能提供更高的潛在回報，但它們也承擔著更高的風險。

Sharpe Ratio

夏普比率

The Sharpe ratio, which measures risk-adjusted returns, revealed significant variations among altcoins. Hartvigsen notes, "This metric underscores the increased risk associated with these 'ETH beta' assets, which is often overlooked by investors."

衡量風險調整回報的夏普比率揭示了山寨幣之間的顯著差異。 Hartvigsen 指出，“這一指標強調了與這些‘ETH beta’資產相關的風險增加，而這一點往往被投資者忽視。”

Conclusion

結論

Hartvigsen concludes that purchasing altcoins for leveraged exposure to Ethereum is an unwise strategy. "You're taking on a lot of additional risk that you might not be aware of," he says. "If you're seeking leveraged ETH exposure, simply placing a 2x ETH long on a platform like Aave is more sensible." This approach ensures a 100% correlation with a beta value of 2, without the complexities of investing in altcoins.

哈特維森的結論是，購買山寨幣來槓桿投資以太幣是一種不明智的策略。 「你正在承擔很多你可能沒有意識到的額外風險，」他說。 “如果你正在尋求槓桿 ETH 敞口，那麼簡單地在 Aave 這樣的平台上放置 2 倍的 ETH 多頭會更明智。”此方法可確保 100% 相關性，且 beta 值為 2，且無需投資山寨幣的複雜性。