Why Investing in 'Ethereum Beta' Altcoins Is Generally a Mistake

为什么投资“以太坊 Beta”山寨币通常是一个错误

In a research report released on July 18, 2024, crypto researcher Thor Hartvigsen cautioned against investing in high-beta altcoins within the Ethereum ecosystem as a leveraged strategy, especially with the upcoming launch of spot Ethereum ETFs in the United States.

在 2024 年 7 月 18 日发布的一份研究报告中，加密货币研究员 Thor Hartvigsen 警告不要将投资以太坊生态系统内的高贝塔山寨币作为杠杆策略，尤其是在美国即将推出现货以太坊 ETF 的情况下。

Hartvigsen's analysis, titled "ETH Beta – a Recipe for Disaster?," investigates whether buying ETH-correlated altcoins, known as 'ETH betas,' is a viable investment strategy. These altcoins, including OP, ARB, MANTA, MNT, METIS, GNO, CANTO, IMX, STRK, MKR, AAVE, SNX, FXS, LDO, PENDLE, ENS, LINK, PEPE, DOGE, SOL, AVAX, BNB, and TON, are typically assumed to offer amplified exposure to Ethereum price movements, with higher volatility than Ethereum itself.

Hartvigsen 的分析题为“ETH Beta – 灾难的根源？”，调查了​​购买与 ETH 相关的山寨币（称为“ETH beta”）是否是一种可行的投资策略。这些山寨币，包括 OP、ARB、MANTA、MNT、METIS、GNO、CANTO、IMX、STRK、MKR、AAVE、SNX、FXS、LDO、PENDLE、ENS、LINK、PEPE、DOGE、SOL、AVAX、BNB 和 TON ，通常被认为会放大以太坊价格变动的风险，其波动性比以太坊本身更高。

The report examines several key areas: price performance, correlation, beta coefficients, and risk-adjusted returns. Hartvigsen highlights the inherent risks and inefficiencies of relying on these altcoins for enhanced Ethereum exposure.

该报告研究了几个关键领域：价格表现、相关性、贝塔系数和风险调整回报。哈特维森强调了依靠这些山寨币来增强以太坊曝光度的固有风险和低效率。

Price Performance

性价比

Hartvigsen notes that "the ratio of altcoin market cap to Ethereum market cap is currently at 1.48. Since 2020, it has only been this low on a few occasions, indicating ETH's outperformance relative to most altcoins." This historical context suggests that it may be difficult for altcoins to outperform Ethereum in the future.

Hartvigsen 指出，“山寨币市值与以太坊市值之比目前为 1.48。自 2020 年以来，只有几次达到如此低的水平，这表明 ETH 的表现优于大多数山寨币。”这一历史背景表明，山寨币未来可能很难超越以太坊。

Correlation

相关性

Hartvigsen's analysis shows that most altcoins have a positive correlation with Ethereum. However, he cautions that this does not guarantee similar performance outcomes, especially in the current crypto cycle.

Hartvigsen 的分析表明，大多数山寨币与以太坊呈正相关。然而，他警告说，这并不能保证类似的性能结果，特别是在当前的加密周期中。

Beta

贝塔

When comparing the volatility of altcoins to Ethereum, Hartvigsen found that "only a few alts have a high beta coefficient relative to ETH: PEPE, METIS, ENS, and PENDLE." While these altcoins may offer higher potential returns, they also carry significantly higher risk.

在将山寨币与以太坊的波动性进行比较时，Hartvigsen 发现“只有少数山寨币相对于 ETH 具有较高的贝塔系数：PEPE、METIS、ENS 和 PENDLE。”虽然这些山寨币可能提供更高的潜在回报，但它们也承担着更高的风险。

Sharpe Ratio

夏普比率

The Sharpe ratio, which measures risk-adjusted returns, revealed significant variations among altcoins. Hartvigsen notes, "This metric underscores the increased risk associated with these 'ETH beta' assets, which is often overlooked by investors."

衡量风险调整回报的夏普比率揭示了山寨币之间的显着差异。 Hartvigsen 指出，“这一指标强调了与这些‘ETH beta’资产相关的风险增加，而这一点往往被投资者忽视。”

Conclusion

结论

Hartvigsen concludes that purchasing altcoins for leveraged exposure to Ethereum is an unwise strategy. "You're taking on a lot of additional risk that you might not be aware of," he says. "If you're seeking leveraged ETH exposure, simply placing a 2x ETH long on a platform like Aave is more sensible." This approach ensures a 100% correlation with a beta value of 2, without the complexities of investing in altcoins.

哈特维森的结论是，购买山寨币来杠杆投资以太坊是一种不明智的策略。 “你正在承担很多你可能没有意识到的额外风险，”他说。 “如果你正在寻求杠杆 ETH 敞口，那么简单地在 Aave 这样的平台上放置 2 倍的 ETH 多头会更明智。”这种方法可确保 100% 相关性，且 beta 值为 2，且无需投资山寨币的复杂性。