Dogecoin (DOGE) has been at the heart of the memecoin frenzy for over a decade, and it continues to post wild gains, such as the 95% increase in the past 7 days alone. However, the rally has been accompanied by a record-high $1.4 billion futures open interest in Dogecoin, triggering speculation of excessive optimism among investors.

十多年來，狗狗幣 (DOGE) 一直是迷因幣熱潮的核心，並且持續大幅上漲，例如僅在過去 7 天內就上漲了 95%。然而，伴隨著上漲的還有狗狗幣期貨未平倉部位創歷史新高的14億美元，引發了投資人過度樂觀的猜測。

Can Dogecoin repeat the 10x gains from previous cycles?

狗狗幣能否重複之前週期的 10 倍漲幅？

Some analysts argue that there is no altcoin season without a DOGE pump, and there is some truth to that, given its track record and $24 billion market cap, making it a top-10 cryptocurrency.

一些分析師認為，沒有 DOGE 上漲就沒有山寨幣季節，鑑於其過往記錄和 240 億美元的市值，使其成為排名前 10 的加密貨幣，這一說法有一定道理。

Technical analysts argue that Dogecoin is repeating "past bull markets" of explosive gains after 22 months of consolidation. One such example includes a post from user ali_charts on X social network.

技術分析師認為，經過 22 個月的盤整之後，狗狗幣正在重複「過去的牛市」的爆炸性上漲。其中一個範例包括用戶 ali_charts 在 X 社交網路上發布的貼文。

The price action of #Dogecoin appears to mirror patterns observed in its past bull markets. If history repeats itself, we could see $DOGE enter a parabolic breakout around April! pic.twitter.com/fL1J3CP3mR

#Dogecoin 的價格走勢似乎反映了過去牛市中觀察到的模式。如果歷史重演，我們可能會看到 $DOGE 在四月左右進入拋物線突破！ pic.twitter.com/fL1J3CP3mR

— Ali (@ali_charts) February 26, 2024

— 阿里 (@ali_charts) 2024 年 2 月 26 日

Firstly, one should note that price charts in a logarithmic scale tend to minimize price oscillations in the past, making it easier to 'forget' the 120% pump in July 2020 or the 145% gains in October 2022 and attribute those as part of a lateralized market. Additionally, the definition of a bull market can be seriously questioned, as some of those periods include a 67% correction in 40 days between June and July 2017 and a 47% retrace in February 2021.

首先，人們應該注意到，對數刻度的價格圖表往往會最大限度地減少過去的價格波動，從而更容易「忘記」2020 年7 月120% 的上漲或2022 年10 月145% 的漲幅，並將這些歸因於橫向市場。此外，多頭市場的定義可能會受到嚴重質疑，因為其中一些時期包括 2017 年 6 月至 7 月之間 40 天內的 67% 回調和 2021 年 2 月的 47% 回撤。

Regardless of whether the recent 95% weekly gains are the initial phase of a bull run or not, DOGE’s futures aggregate open interest had never been above $1 billion. In fact, every previous venture above $550 million open interest has been followed by a sharp DOGE price correction. So, either something has fundamentally changed in the leverage demand, or retail is being overly optimistic with the bullish momentum.

無論最近 95% 的周漲幅是否是多頭市場的初始階段，DOGE 的期貨未平倉總量從未超過 10 億美元。事實上，先前每一次超過 5.5 億美元未平倉合約的投資都會伴隨著 DOGE 價格的大幅調整。因此，要么槓桿需求發生了根本性變化，要么零售業對看漲勢頭過於樂觀。

Note that Dogecoin's current $1.4 billion open interest is significantly higher than previous peaks, yet Dogecoin is trading 77% below its all-time high. In essence, data shows that the interest in leverage has surged to levels previously unseen, regardless of being measured in U.S. dollar value or in DOGE terms. Still, one cannot attribute the increase to retail traders gambling on the price increase without further details.

請注意，狗狗幣目前的未平倉合約為 14 億美元，明顯高於先前的峰值，但狗狗幣的交易價格比歷史最高點低了 77%。從本質上講，數據表明，無論以美元價值還是 DOGE 衡量，人們對槓桿的興趣已飆升至前所未有的水平。儘管如此，在沒有進一步細節的情況下，人們不能將價格上漲歸因於散戶押注價格上漲。

An increased demand for Dogecoin’s futures open interest could be explained by institutional players using DOGE’s price as a proxy for the altcoin market. Similarly, savvy whales could be shorting DOGE, thus betting on the downside, while simultaneously opening leverage long (bull) positions on other memecoins. None of these cases should be deemed risky or unhealthy, given that they vastly differ from retail traders' typical reckless use of leverage.

狗狗幣期貨未平倉合約的需求增加可以解釋為機構參與者使用狗狗幣的價格作為山寨幣市場的代理。同樣，精明的鯨魚可能會做空 DOGE，從而押注下跌，同時在其他模因幣上建立槓桿多頭（牛頭）頭寸。這些案例都不應被視為有風險或不健康，因為它們與散戶交易者典型的魯莽使用槓桿有很大不同。

Dogecoin futures indicate bulls are getting overly optimistic

狗狗幣期貨顯示多頭變得過於樂觀

To get a detailed picture of how leverage is being used, one should analyze the perpetual contracts (inverse swaps), which incorporate an embedded rate typically recalculated every eight hours to compensate for excess demand. A positive funding rate indicates bulls are the ones demanding additional leverage.

要詳細了解槓桿的使用情況，應該分析永續合約（反向掉期），其中包含通常每八小時重新計算一次的嵌入利率，以補償超額需求。正的資金費率顯示多頭需要額外的槓桿。

Data indicates that DOGE futures funding rate has rallied to the highest levels in over 18 months at 0.11%, equivalent to 2.3% per week. Typically, rates above 1% per week indicate excessive optimism, but one must not immediately consider anything above such a threshold as unhealthy.

數據顯示，DOGE期貨融資利率已升至18個月以來的最高水準0.11%，相當於每週2.3%。通常情況下，每週高於 1% 的比率表示過度樂觀，但人們不能立即認為高於此閾值的任何事情都是不健康的。

Related: Is Dogecoin only starting its big rally after 70% weekly gains?

相關：狗狗幣是在每週上漲 70% 後才開始大幅上漲嗎？

During bull runs, even market makers and whales might find themselves temporarily out of liquidity, something that can last for a couple of weeks. In time, as those entities raise cash, the funding rate normalizes, something not necessarily driven by a price correction.

在多頭市場期間，即使是做市商和鯨魚也可能會發現自己暫時缺乏流動性，這種情況可能會持續幾週。隨著這些實體籌集現金，融資利率最終會正常化，這不一定是由價格調整所驅動的。

As a comparison, the funding rate on other coins such as Bitcoin (BTC), Solana (SOL) and XRP (XRP) presently stands near 1.5% per week, so one could argue the entire cryptocurrency market is overheated.

相比之下，比特幣 (BTC)、Solana (SOL) 和 XRP (XRP) 等其他加密貨幣的融資利率目前接近每週 1.5%，因此有人可能會說整個加密貨幣市場過熱。

Consequently, deeming Dogecoin as some form of a leading indicator for a sharp correction in the memecoin sector due to its current leverage seems unfounded.

因此，由於狗狗幣目前的槓桿作用，將狗狗幣視為迷因幣產業大幅調整的某種形式的領先指標似乎是沒有根據的。

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

本文不包含投資建議或建議。每一項投資和交易行為都涉及風險，讀者在做決定時應自行研究。