Dogecoin (DOGE) has been at the heart of the memecoin frenzy for over a decade, and it continues to post wild gains, such as the 95% increase in the past 7 days alone. However, the rally has been accompanied by a record-high $1.4 billion futures open interest in Dogecoin, triggering speculation of excessive optimism among investors.

十多年来，狗狗币 (DOGE) 一直是模因币热潮的核心，并且持续大幅上涨，例如仅在过去 7 天内就上涨了 95%。然而，伴随着上涨的还有狗狗币期货未平仓头寸创历史新高的14亿美元，引发了投资者过度乐观的猜测。

Can Dogecoin repeat the 10x gains from previous cycles?

狗狗币能否重复之前周期的 10 倍涨幅？

Some analysts argue that there is no altcoin season without a DOGE pump, and there is some truth to that, given its track record and $24 billion market cap, making it a top-10 cryptocurrency.

一些分析师认为，没有 DOGE 上涨就没有山寨币季节，鉴于其过往记录和 240 亿美元的市值，使其成为排名前 10 的加密货币，这一说法有一定道理。

Technical analysts argue that Dogecoin is repeating "past bull markets" of explosive gains after 22 months of consolidation. One such example includes a post from user ali_charts on X social network.

技术分析师认为，经过 22 个月的盘整之后，狗狗币正在重复“过去的牛市”的爆炸性上涨。其中一个示例包括用户 ali_charts 在 X 社交网络上发布的帖子。

The price action of #Dogecoin appears to mirror patterns observed in its past bull markets. If history repeats itself, we could see $DOGE enter a parabolic breakout around April! pic.twitter.com/fL1J3CP3mR

#Dogecoin 的价格走势似乎反映了过去牛市中观察到的模式。如果历史重演，我们可能会看到 $DOGE 在四月份左右进入抛物线突破！ pic.twitter.com/fL1J3CP3mR

— Ali (@ali_charts) February 26, 2024

— 阿里 (@ali_charts) 2024 年 2 月 26 日

Firstly, one should note that price charts in a logarithmic scale tend to minimize price oscillations in the past, making it easier to 'forget' the 120% pump in July 2020 or the 145% gains in October 2022 and attribute those as part of a lateralized market. Additionally, the definition of a bull market can be seriously questioned, as some of those periods include a 67% correction in 40 days between June and July 2017 and a 47% retrace in February 2021.

首先，人们应该注意到，对数刻度的价格图表往往会最大限度地减少过去的价格波动，从而更容易“忘记”2020 年 7 月 120% 的上涨或 2022 年 10 月 145% 的涨幅，并将这些归因于横向市场。此外，牛市的定义可能会受到严重质疑，因为其中一些时期包括 2017 年 6 月至 7 月之间 40 天内的 67% 回调和 2021 年 2 月的 47% 回撤。

Regardless of whether the recent 95% weekly gains are the initial phase of a bull run or not, DOGE’s futures aggregate open interest had never been above $1 billion. In fact, every previous venture above $550 million open interest has been followed by a sharp DOGE price correction. So, either something has fundamentally changed in the leverage demand, or retail is being overly optimistic with the bullish momentum.

无论最近 95% 的周涨幅是否是牛市的初始阶段，DOGE 的期货未平仓总量从未超过 10 亿美元。事实上，之前每一次超过 5.5 亿美元未平仓合约的投资都会伴随着 DOGE 价格的大幅调整。因此，要么杠杆需求发生了根本性变化，要么零售业对看涨势头过于乐观。

Note that Dogecoin's current $1.4 billion open interest is significantly higher than previous peaks, yet Dogecoin is trading 77% below its all-time high. In essence, data shows that the interest in leverage has surged to levels previously unseen, regardless of being measured in U.S. dollar value or in DOGE terms. Still, one cannot attribute the increase to retail traders gambling on the price increase without further details.

请注意，狗狗币目前的未平仓合约为 14 亿美元，明显高于之前的峰值，但狗狗币的交易价格比历史最高点低了 77%。从本质上讲，数据表明，无论以美元价值还是 DOGE 衡量，人们对杠杆的兴趣已飙升至前所未有的水平。尽管如此，在没有进一步细节的情况下，人们不能将价格上涨归因于散户押注价格上涨。

An increased demand for Dogecoin’s futures open interest could be explained by institutional players using DOGE’s price as a proxy for the altcoin market. Similarly, savvy whales could be shorting DOGE, thus betting on the downside, while simultaneously opening leverage long (bull) positions on other memecoins. None of these cases should be deemed risky or unhealthy, given that they vastly differ from retail traders' typical reckless use of leverage.

对狗狗币期货未平仓合约的需求增加可以解释为机构参与者使用狗狗币的价格作为山寨币市场的代理。同样，精明的鲸鱼可能会做空 DOGE，从而押注下跌，同时在其他模因币上建立杠杆多头（牛头）头寸。这些案例都不应被视为有风险或不健康，因为它们与散户交易者典型的鲁莽使用杠杆有很大不同。

Dogecoin futures indicate bulls are getting overly optimistic

狗狗币期货表明多头变得过于乐观

To get a detailed picture of how leverage is being used, one should analyze the perpetual contracts (inverse swaps), which incorporate an embedded rate typically recalculated every eight hours to compensate for excess demand. A positive funding rate indicates bulls are the ones demanding additional leverage.

要详细了解杠杆的使用情况，应该分析永续合约（反向掉期），其中包含通常每八小时重新计算一次的嵌入利率，以补偿超额需求。正的资金费率表明多头需要额外的杠杆。

Data indicates that DOGE futures funding rate has rallied to the highest levels in over 18 months at 0.11%, equivalent to 2.3% per week. Typically, rates above 1% per week indicate excessive optimism, but one must not immediately consider anything above such a threshold as unhealthy.

数据显示，DOGE期货融资利率已升至18个月以来的最高水平0.11%，相当于每周2.3%。通常情况下，每周高于 1% 的比率表明过度乐观，但人们不能立即认为高于这一阈值的任何事情都是不健康的。

Related: Is Dogecoin only starting its big rally after 70% weekly gains?

相关：狗狗币是在每周上涨 70% 后才开始大幅上涨吗？

During bull runs, even market makers and whales might find themselves temporarily out of liquidity, something that can last for a couple of weeks. In time, as those entities raise cash, the funding rate normalizes, something not necessarily driven by a price correction.

在牛市期间，即使是做市商和鲸鱼也可能会发现自己暂时缺乏流动性，这种情况可能会持续几周。随着这些实体筹集现金，融资利率最终会正常化，这不一定是由价格调整驱动的。

As a comparison, the funding rate on other coins such as Bitcoin (BTC), Solana (SOL) and XRP (XRP) presently stands near 1.5% per week, so one could argue the entire cryptocurrency market is overheated.

相比之下，比特币 (BTC)、Solana (SOL) 和 XRP (XRP) 等其他加密货币的融资利率目前接近每周 1.5%，因此有人可能会说整个加密货币市场过热。

Consequently, deeming Dogecoin as some form of a leading indicator for a sharp correction in the memecoin sector due to its current leverage seems unfounded.

因此，由于狗狗币目前的杠杆作用，将狗狗币视为模因币行业大幅调整的某种形式的领先指标似乎是没有根据的。

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

本文不包含投资建议或建议。每一项投资和交易行为都涉及风险，读者在做出决定时应自行研究。