3 月 4 日最新市場概況：SPX、DXY、BTC、ETH、BNB、SOL、XRP、ADA、DOGE、AVAX

The Bitcoin market appears poised to surpass its record peak, yet traders must recall that steep climbs often lack sustainability.

比特幣市場似乎即將超越其歷史最高點，但交易者必須記住，急劇的上漲往往缺乏永續性。

Last week, the S&P 500 Index market and the Nasdaq Composite market reached unprecedented highs, reflecting a risk-on attitude among market participants. Bitcoin is eager to join this trend, less than $2,000 away from its all-time high of $68,990 set in November 2021.

上週，標普500指數市場和那斯達克指數市場創下歷史新高，反映市場參與者的風險偏好態度。比特幣渴望加入這一趨勢，距離 2021 年 11 月創下的歷史高點 68,990 美元僅差不到 2,000 美元。

The momentum seems on the buyers’ side, potentially driving Bitcoin’s price to surpass its previous record in the coming days. However, the crucial question remains: Will breaching the $68,990 mark usher in a new phase of upward trend, or will it lead to a sharp downturn, trapping those who are overly optimistic?

這種勢頭似乎在買方這邊，可能會推動比特幣的價格在未來幾天超越之前的紀錄。然而，關鍵的問題依然存在：突破68,990美元大關是否會迎來新一輪的上漲趨勢，還是會導致急劇下滑，讓那些過於樂觀的人陷入困境？

During a FOMO phase, strong returns are made within a short period. Even though the risk is high, the period rewards traders who can ride this phase. However, traders must be careful because sharp declines follow vertical rallies. Hence, traders should keep their stops ready lest their gains may evaporate quickly.

在 FOMO 階段，短期內會獲得豐厚回報。儘管風險很高，但這段時期會獎勵能夠度過這階段的交易者。然而，交易者必須小心，因為垂直上漲之後會出現急劇下跌。因此，交易者應做好停損準備，以免收益迅速蒸發。

Could the bulls propel Bitcoin to a new all-time high and maintain it, or is it time to book profits? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.

多頭能否將比特幣推向歷史新高並維持下去，還是到了獲利了結的時候了？讓我們分析一下圖表來找出答案。

S&P 500 Index (SPX) Market Analysis

標準普爾 500 指數 (SPX) 市場分析

The S&P 500 Index closed at a new all-time high on March 1, indicating that the bulls firmly remain in the driver’s seat.

3月1日，標準普爾500指數收在歷史新高，顯示多頭仍牢牢佔據主導地位。

The index has been trading inside the ascending channel pattern for many days, indicating that the bears may pose a strong challenge at the resistance line. If the price turns down from the resistance line, the bears will try to pull the index to the support line. A break below the channel will start a short-term corrective phase.

該指數已經連續多日在上升通道模式內交易，顯示空頭可能對阻力線構成強有力的挑戰。如果價格從阻力線下跌，空頭將試圖將指數拉至支撐線。跌破該頻道將開始短期調整階段。

On the contrary, if bulls catapult the price above the channel, it will signal a pickup in momentum. That could start a vertical rally, which may take the index to 5,300 and 5,500. Traders must be cautious as the negative divergence on the relative strength index (RSI) suggests the bulls may be losing steam.

相反，如果多頭將價格推升至通道之上，則將預示著動能回升。這可能會引發垂直反彈，使該指數升至 5,300 點和 5,500 點。交易者必須保持謹慎，因為相對強弱指數（RSI）的負背離表明多頭可能正在失去動力。

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Market Analysis

美元指數（DXY）市場分析

The bulls pushed the U.S. dollar Index (DXY) above the 20-day exponential moving average (104) on Feb. 29 but could not build upon it. Sellers pulled the price back below the 20-day EMA on March 1.

2 月 29 日，多頭將美元指數 (DXY) 推升至 20 日指數移動平均線 (104) 上方，但未能在此基礎上繼續前進。 3 月 1 日，賣家將價格拉回至 20 日均線下方。

The 20-day EMA has flattened out, and the RSI is near the midpoint, indicating a possible range-bound action in the near term. If the price remains below the 20-day EMA, the index could slip to the 50-day simple moving average (103). Buyers are expected to defend this level with vigour.

20 日均線已趨於平緩，RSI 接近中點，顯示近期可能出現區間波動。如果價格保持在 20 日均線下方，則該指數可能會滑向 50 日簡單移動平均線 (103)。預計買家將大力捍衛這一水平。

Conversely, if the price turns up from the current level and rises above 104.30, it will indicate solid buying at lower levels. The index could then increase to 105. A break above this resistance could open the doors for a potential rise to 106.

相反，如果價格從當前水準回升併升至 104.30 以上，則表示較低水準上存在強勁買盤。然後該指數可能會升至 105。

Bitcoin (BTC) Market Analysis

比特幣（BTC）市場分析

Bitcoin has been in a solid uptrend for the past several days. The bears tried to halt the upmove near $64,000, but that resulted in the formation of a pennant.

過去幾天，比特幣一直處於穩健的上升趨勢。空頭試圖阻止 64,000 美元附近的上漲，但這導致了三角旗的形成。

The bulls reasserted their supremacy after kicking the price above the pennant on March 4. This signals the start of the next leg of the uptrend, which could reach an all-time high at $68,990 and continue to $76,000, which is the pattern target of the breakout from the pennant.

多頭在3 月4 日將價格踢至三角旗上方後，重新確立了自己的霸主地位。，這是金價的型態目標。

Time is running out for the bears. They must quickly drag the price below $60,000 to make a comeback. If they do that, several stops of short-term traders may hit, and the BTC/USDT pair could drop to the 20-day EMA ($56,250).

留給熊的時間已經不多了。他們必須迅速將價格拉低至 60,000 美元以下才能東山再起。如果他們這樣做，短期交易者可能會遭遇多次止損，BTC/USDT 貨幣對可能會跌至 20 日均線（56,250 美元）。

Ether (ETH) Price Analysis

以太幣（ETH）價格分析

Ether witnessed profit booking near $3,600 on Feb. 29, but the bears failed to start a pullback, indicating that every minor dip is being purchased.

2 月 29 日，以太坊利潤預定在 3,600 美元附近，但空頭未能開始回調，這表明每次小幅下跌都被買入。

The bulls are again trying to overcome the stiff barrier at $3,600. If they manage to do that, the ETH/USDT pair could start the next leg of the uptrend and surge toward $4,000 and later to $4,150.

多頭再次試圖突破 3,600 美元的嚴格關卡。如果他們成功做到這一點，ETH/USDT 貨幣對可能會開始下一階段的上升趨勢，並飆升至 4,000 美元，隨後升至 4,150 美元。

The upsloping moving averages suggest that bulls are in control, but the RSI has been in the overbought zone for several days, increasing the possibility of a short-term pullback. The immediate support on the downside is at $3,300, and then the 20-day EMA ($3,129).

向上傾斜的均線表示多頭處於控制之中，但RSI已連續多日處於超買區域，增加了短期回調的可能性。下行的直接支撐位於 3,300 美元，然後是 20 日均線（3,129 美元）。

BNB Price Analysis

BNB has been in an uptrend for several days. The bears tried to stall the rally at $427, but the bulls bought the dip on Feb. 29, indicating a positive sentiment.

BNB 價格分析 BNB 連續幾天處於上漲趨勢。空頭試圖阻止漲勢至 427 美元，但多頭在 2 月 29 日逢低買入，顯示市場情緒積極。

The rising moving averages and the RSI in the overbought zone suggest that the path of least resistance is to the upside. If buyers shove the price above $427, the BNB/USDT pair could reach $460. The bulls may find it challenging to break above this resistance with ease.

上升的移動平均線和超買區域的 RSI 顯示阻力最小的路徑是上行。如果買家將價格推高至 427 美元以上，BNB/USDT 貨幣對可能會達到 460 美元。多頭可能會發現輕鬆突破該阻力位具有挑戰性。

The critical support to watch on the downside is the 20-day EMA ($383). If this support cracks, it will indicate that the short-term traders may be rushing to the exit. That could start a corrective phase toward the 50-day SMA ($338).

下檔方面值得關注的關鍵支撐是 20 日均線（383 美元）。如果該支撐位破裂，則表示短線交易者可能會急於退出。這可能會開始朝向 50 日移動平均線（338 美元）的修正階段。

XRP Price Analysis

XRP 價格分析

XRP turned down sharply on March 3, but the long tail on the candlestick shows solid buying at lower levels.

XRP 於 3 月 3 日大幅下跌，但燭台上的長尾顯示較低水平的強勁買盤。

The upsloping 20-day EMA ($0.58) and the RSI in the overbought zone suggest the bulls are in command. There is a minor resistance at $0.67, but it is likely to be crossed. The rally could then reach the powerful resistance of $0.74.

不斷上升的 20 日均線（0.58 美元）和超買區域的 RSI 表明多頭處於主導地位。 0.67 美元有一個小阻力，但很可能會被突破。隨後反彈可能會觸及 0.74 美元的強大阻力位。

Instead, if the price turns down sharply from $0.67, it will signal that the bears are fiercely defending the level. That could pull the price down to the 20-day EMA and keep the XRP/USDT pair inside the $0.46 to $0.67 range for a while.

相反，如果價格從 0.67 美元大幅下跌，則表明空頭正在激烈捍衛該水平。這可能會將價格拉低至 20 日均線，並使 XRP/USDT 貨幣對暫時保持在 0.46 美元至 0.67 美元的區間內。

Solana (SOL) Price Analysis

Solana (SOL) 價格分析

Solana closed above the $126 resistance on March 1, but the bulls struggled to sustain the momentum. This suggests a lack of demand at higher levels.

Solana 於 3 月 1 日收盤於 126 美元阻力位上方，但多頭難以維持這一勢頭。這表明缺乏更高水準的需求。

If the price maintains above $126, it will increase the likelihood of the resumption of the uptrend. If buyers pierce the $138 level, the SOL/USDT pair will likely rise to $143 and then to $158.

如果價格維持在 126 美元上方，將增加恢復上升趨勢的可能性。如果買家突破 138 美元的水平，SOL/USDT 貨幣對可能會升至 143 美元，然後升至 158 美元。

Contrary to this assumption, if the $126 level gives way, the pair may slump to the 20-day EMA ($116). The bears must drag the price below the 20-day EMA to suggest that the breakout above $126 was fake. The pair may then drop to the 50-day SMA ($104).

與這一假設相反，如果 126 美元水平失守，該貨幣對可能會跌至 20 日均線（116 美元）。空頭必須將價格拖至 20 日均線下方，才能表明突破 126 美元是假的。隨後該貨幣對可能會跌至 50 日移動平均線（104 美元）。

Cardano (ADA) Price Analysis

卡爾達諾（ADA）價格分析

Cardano started the next leg of the uptrend after buyers overcame the $0.68 barrier on March 1. The bears tried to tug the price back below the breakout level on March 3, but the bulls held their ground. This shows strong buying on dips.

在買家於 3 月 1 日突破 0.68 美元關口後，卡爾達諾開始了下一階段的上升趨勢。這顯示逢低買盤強勁。

The up move will likely reach $0.90, where the bears are expected to mount a strong defence. If the momentum remains strong and buyers bulldoze through $0.90, the rally could extend to $1.25. The bulls may find it difficult to cross this level.

上漲幅度可能達到 0.90 美元，預計空頭將在此進行強有力的防禦。如果勢頭依然強勁且買家突破 0.90 美元，則漲勢可能會擴大至 1.25 美元。多頭可能會發現很難突破這個水平。

The RSI has risen above 80, indicating that the rally is at a risk of stalling. The 20-day EMA ($0.64) remains the essential support to watch out for on the downside. A break and close below this level will signal that the bulls are losing their grip. The ADA/USDT pair may slide to the 50-day SMA ($0.56).

RSI已升至80以上，顯示漲勢面臨停滯風險。 20 日均線（0.64 美元）仍然是下檔方面值得關注的重要支撐。突破並收盤低於該水平將表明多頭正在失去控制。 ADA/USDT 貨幣對可能會滑向 50 日移動平均線（0.56 美元）。

Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Analysis

At $0.19, Dogecoin has been in a strong bull run for the past few days. The bears tried to pull the price lower on March 3, but the long tail on the candlestick shows aggressive buying by the bulls.

狗狗幣 (DOGE) 價格分析狗狗幣價格為 0.19 美元，過去幾天一直處於強勁的牛市行情中。 3 月 3 日，空頭試圖拉低價格，但燭台上的長尾顯示多頭積極買盤。

The bulls resumed the uptrend by pushing the DOGE/USDT pair above the $0.16 overhead resistance on March 4. This opens the door for a possible rise to $0.18 and, after that, to $0.22. The sharp rally has sent the RSI deep into the overbought territory, suggesting a consolidation or correction may be around the corner.

3 月 4 日，多頭將 DOGE/USDT 貨幣對推升至 0.16 美元上方阻力位，從而恢復了上升趨勢。大幅上漲已使 RSI 深入超買區域，表明盤整或調整可能即將到來。

The first support on the downside is at $0.16 and then at $0.12. If this support is taken out, it will suggest that the uptrend may be over.

下行的第一個支撐位是 0.16 美元，然後是 0.12 美元。如果該支撐被取消，則表示上升趨勢可能結束。

Avalanche (AVAX) Price Analysis

Avalanche completed a bullish inverse head-and-shoulders pattern after the price closed above the neckline at $42 on March 1.

Avalanche (AVAX) 價格分析 Avalanche 在 3 月 1 日收盤於頸線上方 42 美元後，完成了看漲的反向頭肩形態。

The AVAX/USDT pair is witnessing a tough battle between the bulls and the bears near the $42 level. If buyers flip the level into support and propel the price above $45, the pair could rally toward the psychological resistance at $50. If this level is overcome, the pair may reach the pattern target of $57.

AVAX/USDT 貨幣對正在 42 美元附近見證多頭和空頭之間的激烈戰鬥。如果買家將該水平轉變為支撐位並將價格推高至 45 美元以上，則該貨幣對可能會反彈至 50 美元的心理阻力位。如果突破該水平，該貨幣對可能會達到 57 美元的形態目標。

Sellers must pull the price below the 20-day EMA ($40) to weaken the bulls. The pair could then slump to the 50-day SMA ($37), suggesting that the breakout on March 1 may have been a bull trap.

賣家必須將價格拉至 20 日均線（40 美元）以下，以削弱多頭的力量。隨後該貨幣對可能會跌至 50 日移動平均線（37 美元），這表明 3 月 1 日的突破可能是一個牛市陷阱。