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Investing in Space: Understanding Starship’s second test flight

投资太空:了解星际飞船的第二次试飞

发布: 2023/12/01 17:20 阅读: 919

原文作者:Michael Sheetz

原文来源:https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/30/investing-in-space-understanding-starships-second-test-flight.html

投资太空:了解星际飞船的第二次试飞

SpaceX's next-generation Starship spacecraft atop its powerful Super Heavy rocket is launched from the company's Boca Chica launchpad on an uncrewed test flight, near Brownsville, Texas, U.S. November 18, 2023. 

2023 年 11 月 18 日,SpaceX 的下一代 Starship 飞船搭载强大的 Super Heavy 火箭,在美国德克萨斯州布朗斯维尔附近的一次无人驾驶试飞中从该公司的 Boca Chica 发射台发射升空。

Overview: This is a test

概述:这是一个测试

In one sense, we're now two weeks (and a holiday breather) on from SpaceX's most recent test flight of a Starship prototype. In another sense, the test is ongoing and we're still in the middle of a massive research and development effort. 

从某种意义上说,距离 SpaceX 最近一次星舰原型试飞还有两周(也是一个假期)。从另一种意义上说,测试仍在进行中,我们仍处于大规模的研发工作之中。

One thing is clear: Starship is a spectacle. The rocket is a 40-story skyscraper, producing unprecedented amounts of power, and launching a few miles away from the viewing public. And, in addition to the company's own livestreams of the launches, enthusiasts broadcast around the clock views of SpaceX's activities in South Texas for thousands to online parse the movement of equipment and rocket parts.

有一点是明确的:星舰是一场奇观。该火箭是一座 40 层的摩天大楼,产生前所未有的能量,并在距离观众几英里的地方发射。而且,除了该公司自己的发射直播外,爱好者还全天候播放 SpaceX 在德克萨斯州南部的活动视图,让数千人在线解析设备和火箭部件的移动情况。

The extremely public display, as well as SpaceX's polarizing owner, is a double-edged sword for understanding Starship test flights. The dramatic views of the launch get people excited about Starship's potential, but at the same time they open the company up to criticism. 

这次极其公开的展示,以及 SpaceX 的两极分化所有者,对于理解 Starship 试飞来说是一把双刃剑。此次发射的戏剧性景象让人们对 Starship 的潜力感到兴奋,但同时也让该公司面临批评。

One person's "glorious success" is another person's "massive failure." Few call the Starship launches what they are: research.

一个人的“辉煌成功”是另一个人的“巨大失败”。很少有人将星舰发射称为“研究”。

SpaceX repeatedly emphasizes the "test" aspect of these flights and, indeed, from the R&D perspective of making progress, there were a number of successes: All 39 Raptor engines worked, the ground infrastructure seems to be in good shape, the "hot-staging" separation process meant the second flight made it further than the first, the rocket reached space, and the flight termination system (a.k.a., onboard safety method to intentionally self-destruct) appeared to trigger much more quickly than before.

SpaceX 反复强调这些飞行的“测试”方面,事实上,从研发进展的角度来看,取得了许多成功:所有 39 个猛禽发动机都工作正常,地面基础设施似乎状况良好,“热- “分阶段”分离过程意味着第二次飞行比第一次飞行更远,火箭到达太空,并且飞行终止系统(又名,故意自毁的机载安全方法)似乎比以前更快地触发。

Important steps forward, sure. Next stop, Mars? No.

当然,向前迈出了重要的一步。下一站,火星?不。

Starship failed to complete the test mission’s profile by splashing down off the coast of Hawaii, falling short of a lower bar than even the most low-risk Falcon 9 launches for SpaceX. Starship’s booster ripped apart shortly after separation, and Starship itself was destroyed because it was underperforming – or, in SpaceX’s words, “a safe command destruct was appropriately triggered based on available vehicle performance data.”

Starship 未能完成测试任务,在夏威夷海岸溅落,甚至低于 SpaceX 风险最低的猎鹰 9 号发射。 Starship 的助推器在分离后不久就破裂了,Starship 本身也因为性能不佳而被摧毁——或者用 SpaceX 的话说,“根据可用的车辆性能数据,适当地触发了安全命令销毁。”

Not great, given the flight time was only a fraction of the planned mission, but not the setback that images of a distant fireball may have you believe.

不太好,因为飞行时间只是计划任务的一小部分,但也不是遥远火球图像可能让你相信的挫折。

Readers, especially space enthusiasts, love to hear estimates of when Starship is going to land on the moon or send people to Mars. But the unfortunate truth is that those timelines are aspirational when talking about missions that rely on technology that’s firmly in the R&D stage. That’s a big reason why I regularly emphasize the comments by SpaceX leadership that Starship won’t be flying people until after completing “hundreds” of successful flights. 

读者,尤其是太空爱好者,喜欢听到有关星际飞船何时登陆月球或将人类送往火星的估计。但不幸的事实是,当谈论依赖于牢牢处于研发阶段的技术的任务时,这些时间表是理想的。这就是为什么我经常强调 SpaceX 领导层的评论,即星舰在完成“数百次”成功飞行之前不会载人。

Starship needs to get to orbit, deliver satellites, demonstrate orbital refueling, safely re-enter the atmosphere and more before I start taking announcements like “landing cargo on the moon by so-and-so year” seriously, let alone fly people. In the middle of all those technological advancements, government regulators face allegations that SpaceX is moving too fast and breaking things, as well as criticism from the company that federal licenses aren’t getting approved quickly enough.

在我开始认真对待“某某年将货物登陆月球”之类的公告之前,星际飞船需要进入轨道、运送卫星、演示轨道加油、安全地重新进入大气层等等,更不用说载人了。在所有这些技术进步的过程中,政府监管机构面临着有关 SpaceX 发展速度太快、破坏事物的指控,以及该公司对该公司联邦许可证审批速度不够快的批评。

There are plenty of ways to read the tea leaves for how quickly the Starship program will play out. You can chart the momentum of Falcon 9 launches over the past 13 years and assume a similar trajectory for Starship. Or you could extrapolate the lag between initial estimates of when Starship would be ready to launch again (as early as June) to when it actually was ready to get back off the ground (October). 

有很多方法可以预测星舰计划的实施速度。您可以绘制过去 13 年中猎鹰 9 号发射的势头,并假设 Starship 也有类似的轨迹。或者,您可以推断出 Starship 准备再次发射的最初估计时间(最早在 6 月)到它实际准备好返回地面的时间(10 月)之间的滞后时间。

The reality is that Starship is still firmly in the R&D stage. Any purported timelines aren’t nearly as firm.

现实情况是,Starship 仍处于研发阶段。任何所谓的时间表都没有那么确定。

What’s up

这是怎么回事

U.S. and China continued to dominate the world’s rocket launches in Q3 with 32 and 20, respectively. Russia and India conducted a distant four and three orbital launches, respectively, during the third quarter. – BryceTech

美国和中国在第三季度继续主导全球火箭发射,分别为 32 次和 20 次。俄罗斯和印度在第三季度分别进行了四次和三次远程轨道发射。 – 布莱斯科技

White House says the U.S. government would be ‘foolish to walk away from’ SpaceX innovation: Despite the White House condemning CEO Elon Musk’s recent comments, National Security Counsel spokesman John Kirby said the federal government is not planning to withdraw any contracts to Musk’s company. – CNBC

白宫表示,美国政府“放弃”SpaceX 的创新将是愚蠢的:尽管白宫谴责首席执行官埃隆·马斯克最近的言论,但国家安全顾问发言人约翰·柯比表示,联邦政府不打算撤回与马斯克公司的任何合同。 – CNBC

Elon Musk and Israel reach agreement over use of Starlink in Gaza, with the SpaceX CEO having previously proposed using the satellite communications system in the region. Israeli Communications Minister Shlomo Karhi reportedly said the agreement with Musk means Starlink can only be operated in Israel and Gaza with Israeli approval. – Reuters

埃隆·马斯克和以色列就在加沙使用星链达成协议,SpaceX 首席执行官此前曾提议在该地区使用卫星通信系统。据报道,以色列通讯部长什洛莫·卡希表示,与马斯克达成的协议意味着星链只能在以色列和加沙地带运营并获得以色列批准。 - 路透社

China shows off Tiangong space station in new photos that give a clear look at the orbiting habitat and its three modules. – Ars Technica

中国在新照片中展示了天宫空间站,清晰地展示了轨道栖息地及其三个模块。 – Ars Technica

NASA chief Nelson tours India and the UAE, holding meetings with his government counterparts to discuss further space cooperation. – NASA

美国宇航局局长尼尔森访问印度和阿联酋,与政府同行举行会议,讨论进一步的太空合作。 – 美国宇航局

York and SDA announce successful demo of Link 16 connectivity with PWSA satellites, with the Space Development Agency saying the company’s satellites launched earlier this year as part of Tranche 0 in the Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture completed the technical milestone in a recent demonstration. – SDA / York

约克和 SDA 宣布成功演示了 Link 16 与 PWSA 卫星的连接,太空发展局表示,该公司今年早些时候发射的卫星,作为扩散战士太空架构中第 0 阶段的一部分,在最近的一次演示中完成了技术里程碑。 – SDA / 约克

NASA pauses Hubble science operations due to gyroscope problem, noting that the telescope’s instruments are “stable” and “in good health.” The spacecraft has gone in and out of “safe mode” due to an unstable gyroscope. – NASA

由于陀螺仪问题,美国宇航局暂停了哈勃科学操作,并指出该望远镜的仪器“稳定”且“状况良好”。由于陀螺仪不稳定,航天器进入和退出“安全模式”。 – 美国宇航局

Firefly to launch next mission for Lockheed Martin, preparing its Alpha rocket to launch as soon as December. – Firefly / Lockheed Martin

萤火虫公司将为洛克希德马丁公司发射下一次任务,并准备其阿尔法火箭最早于 12 月发射。 - 萤火虫/洛克希德·马丁公司

The Mars horizon captured from orbit: NASA’s Odyssey orbiter, which has been circling the red planet for more than two decades, captured a detailed view of Mars from asimilar vantage point of photos captured by astronauts on the International Space Station. – NASA

从轨道上拍摄到的火星地平线:美国宇航局的奥德赛轨道飞行器已经围绕这颗红色星球运行了二十多年,它从与国际空间站宇航员拍摄的照片类似的有利位置拍摄到了火星的详细视图。 – 美国宇航局

Ariane 6 rocket targeting mid-2024 launch, the European Space Agency said, after passing a key, seven-minute test firing of the vehicle’s Vulcain 2.1 engine. ESA says the launch is aimed for between June 15 and July 31. – SpaceNews

欧洲航天局表示,阿丽亚娜 6 号火箭计划于 2024 年中期发射,此前该火箭的 Vulcain 2.1 发动机已通过了为期 7 分钟的关键试射。 ESA 表示此次发射计划于 6 月 15 日至 7 月 31 日期间进行。 – SpaceNews

North Korea launches first spy satellite into orbit after two previously failed launches. – New York Times

朝鲜在两次发射失败后将第一颗间谍卫星送入轨道。 - 纽约时报

Firefly test fires Miranda rocket engine as the company works toward the first launches of Northrop Grumman’s Antares 330 and MLV rockets. – Firefly

随着公司致力于诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司 Antares 330 和 MLV 火箭的首次发射,萤火虫测试了米兰达火箭发动机。 – 萤火虫

Satellogic to build satellites in India through Tata deal, with the satellite imagery company to help Tata Advanced Systems Limited manufacture satellites for the country’s government and commercial use. – Satellogic

Satellogic 将通过塔塔协议在印度建造卫星,并与卫星图像公司帮助塔塔先进系统有限公司制造供该国政府和商业使用的卫星。 – 卫星逻辑

NASA postponed Dragonfly mission to Saturn’s moon Titan by a year, citing “incredibly large uncertainties” in upcoming annual budgets. – SpaceNews

美国宇航局将土星卫星泰坦的蜻蜓任务推迟了一年,理由是即将到来的年度预算存在“令人难以置信的巨大不确定性”。 – 太空新闻

Industry maneuvers

行业演习

SpaceX acquired parachute maker Pioneer for $2.2 million in bankruptcy deal. The company served as the supplier of the drogue parachutes for SpaceX’s Dragon capsules. – The Information

SpaceX 以 220 万美元的破产协议收购了降落伞制造商 Pioneer。该公司是 SpaceX Dragon 太空舱锥套降落伞的供应商。 – 信息

UK Space Agency invests $59 million in 12 space projects, with the United Kingdom agency’s funding also matched by the private sector for a variety of research and development projects. – Via Satellite

英国航天局向 12 个航天项目投资 5900 万美元,私营部门也为各种研发项目提供了配套资金。 – 通过卫星

Rocket Lab adds Maryland facility for producing composite parts, a 113,000-square-foot former Lockheed Martin complex that will build space structures including spacecraft buses, satellite dispensers and more. – Rocket Lab

火箭实验室在马里兰州增加了生产复合材料零件的设施,这是一座占地 113,000 平方英尺的前洛克希德·马丁综合设施,将建造包括航天器巴士、卫星分配器等在内的太空结构。 – 火箭实验室

MDA to expand in the UK: The Canadian space company aims to double its workforce in the United Kingdom to 150 by the end of next year, having acquired a division of satellite communications equipment maker SatixFy earlier this year. – MDA

MDA 将在英国扩张:这家加拿大航天公司今年早些时候收购了卫星通信设备制造商 SatixFy 的一个部门,计划到明年底将其在英国的员工人数增加一倍,达到 150 人。 – MDA

Satellogic granted NOAA license key to U.S. expansion: In support of the company’s plan to redomicile in the U.S. next year, the NOAA license followed a review of Satellogic’s “national security, foreign policy, and U.S. international risks and obligations.” – Satellogic

Satellogic 授予 NOAA 许可证对美国扩张至关重要:为了支持该公司明年在美国迁址的计划,NOAA 许可证是在对 Satellogic 的“国家安全、外交政策以及美国国际风险和义务”进行审查后获得的。 – 卫星逻辑

Amazon announces AWS ‘private connectivity’ plan through Kuiper, saying the company’s coming satellite internet service will allow enterprise and government customers to “to move data privately from a remote location directly into AWS without ever touching the public internet.” The company will pilot the service through early Kuiper partners Verizon, Vodafone and Japan’s NTT. – Amazon

亚马逊通过 Kuiper 宣布了 AWS 的“私有连接”计划,称该公司即将推出的卫星互联网服务将允许企业和政府客户“将数据从远程位置直接私下转移到 AWS,而无需接触公共互联网。”该公司将通过早期 Kuiper 合作伙伴 Verizon、沃达丰和日本 NTT 试点该服务。 - 亚马逊

Loft Orbital advertising virtual satellite missions that offer customers the ability to deploy and test software applications on the company’s spacecraft. – Loft

Loft Orbital 宣传虚拟卫星任务,让客户能够在该公司的航天器上部署和测试软件应用程序。 – 阁楼

Boldly going

大胆前行

Amanda Knez named COO at gravityLab, coming to the artificial gravity startup after tenures at ABL, Rocket Lab and SpaceX. – Knez

阿曼达·克内兹 (Amanda Knez) 被任命为 GravityLab 首席运营官,在 ABL、Rocket Lab 和 SpaceX 任职后,她加入了这家人造重力初创公司。 – 克内兹

Skip Williams and Jim Congdon appointed to LightRidge Solutions' C-suite as Chief Technology Officer and Chief Software Officer, respectively. Williams joins the space sensors company from L3Harris, while Congdon was previously the Chief Software Architect of LightRidge's GEOST. – LightRidge

Skip Williams 和 Jim Congdon 被任命为 LightRidge Solutions 的最高管理层,分别担任首席技术官和首席软件官。 Williams 从 L3Harris 加入空间传感器公司,而 Congdon 之前是 LightRidge 的 GEOST 的首席软件架构师。 – LightRidge

Kevin Sagis named Chief Product Officer at rocket launcher ABL, joining the company after serving as Virgin Orbit's Chief Engineer for a decade, and Lockheed Martin's Chief Engineer for the Extended Medium Range Ballistic Missile (EMRBM) program before that. — ABL

凯文·萨吉斯 (Kevin Sagis) 被任命为火箭发射公司 ABL 的首席产品官,他在加入该公司之前曾担任维珍轨道公司 (Virgin Orbit) 的首席工程师十年,此前还担任过洛克希德·马丁公司 (Lockheed Martin) 增程中程弹道导弹 (EMRBM) 项目的首席工程师。 — ABL

On the horizon

在地平线上

Dec. 1: Virtual meeting of the National Space Council's UAG (Users Advisory Group).

12 月 1 日:国家空间委员会 UAG(用户咨询小组)召开虚拟会议。

Dec. 1: SpaceX Falcon 9 launches 425 Project Flight 1 for South Korea from California.

12 月 1 日:SpaceX Falcon 9 从加利福尼亚州为韩国发射 425 Project Flight 1。

Dec. 1: SpaceX Falcon 9 launches Starlink satellites from Florida.

12 月 1 日:SpaceX 猎鹰 9 号从佛罗里达州发射星链卫星。

Dec. 5: SpaceX Falcon 9 launches Starlink satellites from Florida.

12 月 5 日:SpaceX 猎鹰 9 号从佛罗里达州发射星链卫星。



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