Bitcoin: Hashrate Hiccup or Miner Exodus?

比特币：算力停滞还是矿工出走？

The post-halving world of Bitcoin continues to throw curveballs. After a hashrate surge to celebrate the block reward reduction in April, Bitcoin's computational power has taken a nosedive, dropping 20% in recent weeks.

比特币减半后的世界继续出现曲线球。在 4 月份庆祝区块奖励减少而导致算力激增之后，比特币的计算能力急剧下降，最近几周下降了 20%。

Hashrate Hiccup or Miner Exodus?

算力问题还是矿工出走？

Hashrate, a measure of the combined processing power dedicated to securing the Bitcoin network, typically climbs after a halving event as miners invest in more powerful rigs to compete for the reduced rewards. However, this time around, the trend defied expectations.

算力是衡量比特币网络安全的综合处理能力的指标，通常在减半事件后攀升，因为矿工投资更强大的矿机来争夺减少的奖励。然而，这一次的趋势却出乎意料。

Experts like Maartunn, a pseudonymous analyst at CryptoQuant, believe this signals a potential "miner capitulation." Less efficient miners are now likely throwing in the towel. The halving, which cut block rewards in half, squeezed profit margins for miners using older equipment. As these miners shut down their operations, the hashrate dips.

CryptoQuant 的化名分析师 Maartunn 等专家认为，这标志着潜在的“矿工投降”。效率较低的矿工现在可能会认输。减半导致区块奖励减少一半，挤压了使用旧设备的矿工的利润率。当这些矿工停止运营时，算力就会下降。

Hash Ribbons Flash Warning Sign

哈希丝带闪光警告标志

Supporting Maartunn's theory is a technical indicator called Hash Ribbons. This metric tracks the difference between short-term and long-term hashrate averages. When the gap widens, it suggests a decline in mining activity, potentially due to less efficient miners dropping off.

支持 Maartunn 理论的是一个名为“哈希丝带”的技术指标。该指标跟踪短期和长期算力平均值之间的差异。当差距扩大时，表明采矿活动下降，可能是由于效率较低的矿工退出所致。

The recent hashrate plunge has triggered a spike in Hash Ribbons, historically a sign of miner capitulation that has often coincided with price lows for Bitcoin.

最近的算力暴跌引发了算力丝带的飙升，这从历史上看是矿工投降的迹象，通常与比特币价格低点同时发生。

Bitcoin Miners Selling Off?

比特币矿工抛售？

Further fueling the capitulation theory is a decrease in Bitcoin's Miner Reserve. This metric tracks the amount of Bitcoin held in wallets associated with miners. A decline in the reserve suggests miners might be offloading their mined coins, potentially to cover operational costs or to exit the market altogether.

比特币矿工储备的减少进一步加剧了投降理论。该指标跟踪与矿工相关的钱包中持有的比特币数量。储备的下降表明矿商可能会抛售他们开采的代币，可能是为了支付运营成本或完全退出市场。

Undervaluation Signal or Cyclical Dip?

低估信号还是周期性下跌？

Maartunn interprets these signs as a bullish indicator. Hash Ribbons often point to opportune moments to buy, he argues. Backing his claim is the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, which suggests Bitcoin might be undervalued.

Maartunn 将这些迹象解读为看涨指标。他认为，哈希丝带通常会指出购买的时机。支持他的主张的是市场价值与已实现价值（MVRV）比率，这表明比特币可能被低估。

This metric compares the current market price to the average price at which all Bitcoins were acquired. A negative MVRV, like the one Bitcoin currently has, suggests the asset is trading below its historical cost basis, potentially indicating a buying opportunity.

该指标将当前市场价格与购买所有比特币的平均价格进行比较。负 MVRV（就像比特币目前的情况一样）表明该资产的交易价格低于其历史成本基础，可能表明存在买入机会。

Related Reading: Buckle Up, XRP Fans: Analyst Eyes Price Explosion To $0.65 In Next 5 Days

相关阅读：XRP 粉丝们，系好安全带：分析师预计价格将在未来 5 天内爆炸至 0.65 美元

Not Everyone on the Capitulation Train

并不是每个人都在投降列车上

However, not all analysts are convinced. Some argue that the hashrate decline could be temporary, perhaps due to factors like extreme weather events disrupting mining operations in certain regions. Additionally, the post-halving period is typically one of adjustment for miners, and a short-term hashrate fluctuation might not necessarily signal a mass exodus.

然而，并非所有分析师都相信这一点。一些人认为，算力下降可能是暂时的，可能是由于极端天气事件扰乱了某些地区的采矿作业等因素。此外，减半后的时期通常是矿工的调整期之一，短期算力波动并不一定意味着大规模外流。

The post-halving Bitcoin landscape is still unfolding. While the hashrate decline and other signs suggest a potential buying opportunity, particularly for long-term investors, the situation remains fluid.

比特币减半后的景象仍在展开。尽管算力下降和其他迹象表明存在潜在的买入机会，特别是对于长期投资者而言，但情况仍然不稳定。

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView

精选图片来自 Shutterstock，图表来自 TradingView