比特幣價格由什麼決定？

How is Bitcoin priced?

比特幣是如何定價的？

Market forces called supply and demand influence Bitcoin’s price. The price typically decreases when there are more sellers or vice versa.

稱為供給和需求的市場力量影響比特幣的價格。當賣家增加時，價格通常會下降，反之亦然。

Bitcoin (BTC) is a cryptocurrency that is not issued by any government or legal body, in contrast to fiat currencies, such as the United States dollar, the British pound, the euro and the Japanese yen. To create, store and move BTC, a dispersed network of users and cryptographic protocols are required.

與美元、英鎊、歐元和日圓等法定貨幣相比，比特幣（BTC）是一種不由任何政府或法律機構發行的加密貨幣。要建立、儲存和行動 BTC，需要分散的用戶網路和加密協定。

Investors carry out their commercial transactions directly instead of using an intermediary. The peer-to-peer Bitcoin network removes trade restrictions and streamlines commerce. Satoshi Nakamoto proposed the world’s first cryptocurrency in 2008, which was launched in January 2009.

投資者直接進行商業交易，而不是透過中介機構。點對點比特幣網路消除了貿易限制並簡化了商務。中本聰於 2008 年提出了世界上第一個加密貨幣，並於 2009 年 1 月推出。

The number of businesses accepting Bitcoin contributes to its usability and perceived value. However, its price has been subject to significant volatility and is influenced by factors such as media coverage, investor sentiment and regulatory news, which have led to rapid price fluctuations. Even at the height of its popularity, finding precise answers to common questions is challenging, such as, what determines Bitcoin’s price? Who sets Bitcoin’s price? And does Bitcoin have intrinsic value?

接受比特幣的企業數量有助於其可用性和感知價值。但其價格波動較大，並受到媒體報導、投資者情緒和監管消息等因素的影響，導致價格快速波動。即使在其最受歡迎的時期，找到常見問題的精確答案也具有挑戰性，例如，什麼決定了比特幣的價格？比特幣的價格是誰設定的？比特幣有內在價值嗎？

The same supply and demand market dynamics that affect the price of other goods and services also determine the price of Bitcoin. Prices will probably rise if there are more buyers than sellers or vice-versa. Furthermore, it is important to note that the price of Bitcoin is not determined by a single entity, nor is it traded in a single location, such as on a stock exchange.

影響其他商品和服務價格的供需市場動態也決定了比特幣的價格。如果買家多於賣家，價格可能會上漲，反之亦然。此外，值得注意的是，比特幣的價格不是由單一實體決定的，也不是在單一地點（例如證券交易所）進行交易的。

Instead, each market or exchange determines its price based on supply, demand and other factors, such as technological advancements, security measures and regulatory developments.

相反，每個市場或交易所根據供需和其他因素（例如技術進步、安全措施和監管發展）來確定其價格。

What factors could impact Bitcoin’s price?

哪些因素會影響比特幣的價格？

Various factors impacting Bitcoin’s price include the supply and demand of BTC, competition from other cryptocurrencies, news, cost of production and regulation.

影響比特幣價格的各種因素包括比特幣的供需、其他加密貨幣的競爭、新聞、生產成本和監管。

Supply and demand

供需

Those with a background in economics know the law of supply and demand, which states that supply and demand market forces work together to determine the market price and the quantity of a specific commodity. For instance, the demand for an economic good declines as the price increases and sellers produce more or vice versa.

有經濟學背景的人都知道供需定律，即供需市場力量共同決定特定商品的市場價格和數量。例如，隨著價格上漲和賣家生產更多，對經濟商品的需求下降，反之亦然。

The fundamental economic principle of supply and demand plays a crucial role in Bitcoin’s valuation. Bitcoin has a 21 million coin hard cap on its supply, introducing scarcity to the digital currency. Miners will no longer receive new Bitcoin for verifying transactions once that cap is reached.

供需的基本經濟原理在比特幣的估值中起著至關重要的作用。比特幣的供應量有 2,100 萬枚硬性上限，這導致了數位貨幣的稀缺性。一旦達到上限，礦工將不再收到新的比特幣來驗證交易。

Similarly, an event called the Bitcoin halving halves the reward for mining new blocks every four years (approximately), reducing the rate at which new BTC enters the market supply. As supply growth slows, if demand remains steady or increases, it can lead to higher Bitcoin prices.

同樣，一個名為「比特幣減半」的事件使每四年（大約）開採新區塊的獎勵減半，從而降低了新比特幣進入市場供應的速度。隨著供應成長放緩，如果需求保持穩定或增加，可能會導致比特幣價格上漲。

Bitcoin halving history

Competition and news

競爭和新聞

Bitcoin competes with numerous alternative cryptocurrencies, such as Ether (ETH) and Dogecoin (DOGE), each with unique features that attract investor interest. Additionally, news and media coverage can significantly impact investor sentiment, driving price fluctuations based on perceptions of Bitcoin’s future prospects.

比特幣與以太坊（ETH）和狗狗幣（DOGE）等眾多替代加密貨幣競爭，每種加密貨幣都有吸引投資者興趣的獨特功能。此外，新聞和媒體報導可以顯著影響投資者的情緒，根據對比特幣未來前景的看法推動價格波動。

Cost of production

生產成本

The cost of producing Bitcoin encompasses not only direct expenses like infrastructure and electricity for miners but also indirect costs related to the complexity of the cryptographic challenges they must solve. These costs contribute to establishing a baseline or “break-even” point for miners, affecting the lowest price at which they might consider it economically viable to mine Bitcoin.

生產比特幣的成本不僅包括礦工的基礎設施和電力等直接費用，還包括與他們必須解決的加密挑戰的複雜性相關的間接成本。這些成本有助於為礦工建立基準或「收支平衡」點，影響他們認為開採比特幣在經濟上可行的最低價格。

This break-even point is often referred to as the “floor price” in the context of Bitcoin mining, representing the minimum price at which mining Bitcoin can be profitable when considering operational costs.

在比特幣挖礦中，這個盈虧平衡點通常被稱為“底價”，代表在考慮營運成本時挖掘比特幣可以獲利的最低價格。

Moreover, the Bitcoin network adjusts the difficulty of its cryptographic puzzles in response to the overall mining power, influencing how quickly new Bitcoin are produced. These adjustments can either decelerate or accelerate the rate of Bitcoin creation, affecting the overall supply and, subsequently, its market price.

此外，比特幣網路會根據整體挖礦能力調整其密碼謎題的難度，進而影響新比特幣的生產速度。這些調整可能會減慢或加快比特幣的創造速度，進而影響整體供應，進而影響其市場價格。

Regulation

規定

Cryptocurrency regulations are constantly changing, with some countries taking a friendly approach to crypto, such as El Salvador, which made Bitcoin legal tender in 2021, and others taking a less friendly approach to crypto, such as China, which formally banned crypto transactions outright in 2019. Regulatory developments can significantly impact Bitcoin’s market dynamics, creating uncertainty that may affect its price.

加密貨幣法規不斷變化，一些國家對加密貨幣採取了友好的態度，例如薩爾瓦多，該國於2021 年使比特幣成為法定貨幣，而其他國家則對加密貨幣採取了不太友好的態度，例如中國，該國在 2021 年正式禁止了加密貨幣交易。2019 年。監管發展可能會對比特幣的市場動態產生重大影響，從而產生可能影響其價格的不確定性。

When authorities introduce restrictive measures, it can exert downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price. Conversely, regulatory actions that enhance market accessibility, like approving spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States and improving security measures, can foster greater market participation and potentially lead to an increase in Bitcoin’s price.

噹噹局採取限制措施時，可能會對比特幣的價格施加下行壓力。相反，增強市場准入的監管行動，例如在美國批准現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）和改善安全措施，可以促進更大的市場參與，並可能導致比特幣價格上漲。

Why is the Bitcoin price so volatile?

為什麼比特幣價格如此波動？

Uncertainty regarding the intrinsic value of Bitcoin and BTC’s future price makes it a highly volatile asset.

比特幣內在價值和比特幣未來價格的不確定性使其成為高度波動的資產。

The amount of new Bitcoin entering the supply decreases steadily every four years in the halving, decreasing the asset’s inflation rate over time. According to CompaniesMarketcap, Bitcoin is the 10th-largest asset by market cap at the time of writing and is no longer a niche asset but a significant player in the broader financial landscape. Moreover, media coverage can disproportionately affect asset prices, and this phenomenon is not exclusive to Bitcoin.

在減半期間，進入供應的新比特幣數量每四年穩定減少，隨著時間的推移，資產的通貨膨脹率降低。根據 CompaniesMarketcap 的數據，截至撰寫本文時，比特幣是市值第十大資產，不再是利基資產，而是更廣泛的金融領域的重要參與者。此外，媒體報道會對資產價格產生不成比例的影響，這種現象並非比特幣獨有。

However, the immediacy and ubiquity of information today, facilitated by digital media and social media platforms, means that news (positive or negative) can rapidly influence investor sentiment and, consequently, asset prices across the board. This effect is amplified in highly speculative markets where investor sentiment plays a crucial role, as is often the case with cryptocurrencies.

然而，在數位媒體和社群媒體平台的推動下，當今資訊的即時性和普遍性意味著新聞（正面或負面）可以迅速影響投資者的情緒，從而全面影響資產價格。這種效應在高度投機的市場中會被放大，投資者的情緒起著至關重要的作用，加密貨幣通常就是這種情況。

The approval of U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs on Jan. 11 significantly impacted Bitcoin’s price, attracting institutional capital and increasing demand. As a result, at the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin has surged by 33% since Jan. 11 as traditional finance investors and institutions rallied to invest.

1 月 11 日美國現貨比特幣 ETF 的批准對比特幣的價格產生了重大影響，吸引了機構資本並增加了需求。截至本文撰寫時，隨著傳統金融投資者和機構紛紛出手投資，比特幣價格自 1 月 11 日以來已飆升 33%。

Considering this high volatility, can the Bitcoin price go to zero? Such a scenario is highly unlikely but technically possible under extreme conditions, such as a catastrophic technological failure undermining the blockchain’s security or a complete loss of confidence by all users and investors. However, these scenarios are highly improbable due to Bitcoin’s decentralized nature, widespread adoption, and the robustness of its underlying technology.

考慮到如此高的波動性，比特幣價格可以歸零嗎？這種情況極不可能發生，但在極端條件下技術上是可能的，例如破壞區塊鏈安全的災難性技術故障或所有用戶和投資者完全喪失信心。然而，由於比特幣的去中心化性質、廣泛採用及其底層技術的穩健性，這些情況極不可能發生。

Moreover, layer-2 innovations like the Lightning Network aim to solve usability and scalability problems, which could improve the value proposition of Bitcoin. Unlike Ethereum’s ERC-20 token standard, which facilitates the creation of tokens and smart contracts on its network, Bitcoin, by design, does not natively support complex smart contracts or token standards.

此外，像閃電網路這樣的第二層創新旨在解決可用性和可擴展性問題，這可以提高比特幣的價值主張。與以太坊的 ERC-20 代幣標準（該標準有助於在其網路上創建代幣和智能合約）不同，比特幣在設計上本身並不支援複雜的智能合約或代幣標準。

Nonetheless, innovative solutions are being developed to extend Bitcoin’s capabilities in this area. For instance, developments like the RSK (Rootstock) platform are bridging this gap by introducing smart contract functionality to the Bitcoin ecosystem.

儘管如此，創新的解決方案正在開發中，以擴展比特幣在這一領域的功能。例如，RSK（Rootstock）平台等開發項目正在透過向比特幣生態系統引入智慧合約功能來彌補這一差距。

Additionally, the BRC-20 token standard represents an innovative approach to introducing tokenization capabilities directly on the Bitcoin blockchain. As an experimental standard, BRC-20 aims to enable the creation, minting and transfer of fungible tokens, akin to how the ERC-20 standard functions on Ethereum and other Ethereum Virtual Machine-compatible networks.

此外，BRC-20 代幣標準代表了一種直接在比特幣區塊鏈上引入代幣化功能的創新方法。作為實驗性標準，BRC-20 旨在實現可替代代幣的創建、鑄造和轉移，類似於 ERC-20 標準在以太坊和其他以太坊虛擬機器相容網路上的運作方式。

What will happen if Bitcoin's price crashes to zero?

如果比特幣價格跌至零會發生什麼事？

If BTC's price drops to zero, it will impact the traders, institutional investors, price of other digital currencies, cryptocurrency enterprises and the whole financial system.

如果BTC價格跌至零，將會對交易者、機構投資者、其他數位貨幣的價格、加密貨幣企業以及整個金融體系產生影響。

Now, assuming that BTC's price declines to zero, it will impact the price of other cryptocurrencies. As a result, many investors could just withdraw (completely or substantially) to reduce losses, depending on their type of investment.

現在，假設BTC的價格跌至零，它將影響其他加密貨幣的價格。因此，許多投資者可以根據其投資類型直接撤資（完全或大幅撤資）以減少損失。

Large institutional investors may be particularly at risk because more and more have made larger investments to diversify their portfolios. The most exposed would be those who invested more recently at high prices or in crypto derivatives, and they would need to liquidate other assets to fulfill margin calls.

大型機構投資者可能面臨特別大的風險，因為越來越多的機構投資者進行了更大規模的投資以實現投資組合多元化。受影響最大的是那些最近以高價或加密貨幣衍生品進行投資的人，他們需要清算其他資產來滿足追加保證金的要求。

Customers may lose faith in a system that appears to be crumbling, affecting cryptocurrency enterprises like Coinbase, Binance, etc., that depend on customers for transaction flow to generate revenue and funding/investments to grow. Investments in these companies may also stop altogether or significantly decline. Additionally, such enterprises may no longer be able to hire, pay or attract the personnel necessary to run and expand them.

客戶可能會對一個看似崩潰的系統失去信心，從而影響 Coinbase、Binance 等加密貨幣企業，這些企業依賴客戶的交易流來產生收入和資金/投資來成長。對這些公司的投資也可能完全停止或大幅下降。此外，此類企業可能不再能夠僱用、支付或吸引營運和擴張所需的人員。

Furthermore, the contagion may, at least temporarily, have an impact on the rest of the financial system due to:

此外，由於以下原因，疫情蔓延可能至少暫時對金融體系的其他部分產生影響：

Downward pressure on other assets such as those sold in a fire sale to raise money to meet obligations, such as paying remuneration, margin calls, maintaining premises, etc., and

其他資產面臨下行壓力，例如為了籌集資金以履行支付報酬、追加保證金、維護經營場所等義務而進行的甩賣出售的資產，以及