比特币价格由什么决定？

How is Bitcoin priced?

比特币是如何定价的？

Market forces called supply and demand influence Bitcoin’s price. The price typically decreases when there are more sellers or vice versa.

称为供给和需求的市场力量影响比特币的价格。当卖家增多时，价格通常会下降，反之亦然。

Bitcoin (BTC) is a cryptocurrency that is not issued by any government or legal body, in contrast to fiat currencies, such as the United States dollar, the British pound, the euro and the Japanese yen. To create, store and move BTC, a dispersed network of users and cryptographic protocols are required.

与美元、英镑、欧元和日元等法定货币相比，比特币（BTC）是一种不由任何政府或法律机构发行的加密货币。要创建、存储和移动 BTC，需要分散的用户网络和加密协议。

Investors carry out their commercial transactions directly instead of using an intermediary. The peer-to-peer Bitcoin network removes trade restrictions and streamlines commerce. Satoshi Nakamoto proposed the world’s first cryptocurrency in 2008, which was launched in January 2009.

投资者直接进行商业交易，而不是通过中介机构。点对点比特币网络消除了贸易限制并简化了商务。中本聪于 2008 年提出了世界上第一个加密货币，并于 2009 年 1 月推出。

The number of businesses accepting Bitcoin contributes to its usability and perceived value. However, its price has been subject to significant volatility and is influenced by factors such as media coverage, investor sentiment and regulatory news, which have led to rapid price fluctuations. Even at the height of its popularity, finding precise answers to common questions is challenging, such as, what determines Bitcoin’s price? Who sets Bitcoin’s price? And does Bitcoin have intrinsic value?

接受比特币的企业数量有助于其可用性和感知价值。但其价格波动较大，并受到媒体报道、投资者情绪和监管消息等因素的影响，导致价格快速波动。即使在其最流行的时期，找到常见问题的精确答案也具有挑战性，例如，什么决定了比特币的价格？比特币的价格是谁设定的？比特币有内在价值吗？

The same supply and demand market dynamics that affect the price of other goods and services also determine the price of Bitcoin. Prices will probably rise if there are more buyers than sellers or vice-versa. Furthermore, it is important to note that the price of Bitcoin is not determined by a single entity, nor is it traded in a single location, such as on a stock exchange.

影响其他商品和服务价格的供需市场动态也决定了比特币的价格。如果买家多于卖家，价格可能会上涨，反之亦然。此外，值得注意的是，比特币的价格不是由单个实体决定的，也不是在单个地点（例如证券交易所）进行交易的。

Instead, each market or exchange determines its price based on supply, demand and other factors, such as technological advancements, security measures and regulatory developments.

相反，每个市场或交易所根据供需和其他因素（例如技术进步、安全措施和监管发展）确定其价格。

What factors could impact Bitcoin’s price?

哪些因素会影响比特币的价格？

Various factors impacting Bitcoin’s price include the supply and demand of BTC, competition from other cryptocurrencies, news, cost of production and regulation.

影响比特币价格的各种因素包括比特币的供需、来自其他加密货币的竞争、新闻、生产成本和监管。

Supply and demand

供需

Those with a background in economics know the law of supply and demand, which states that supply and demand market forces work together to determine the market price and the quantity of a specific commodity. For instance, the demand for an economic good declines as the price increases and sellers produce more or vice versa.

有经济学背景的人都知道供需定律，即供需市场力量共同决定特定商品的市场价格和数量。例如，随着价格上涨和卖家生产更多，对经济商品的需求下降，反之亦然。

The fundamental economic principle of supply and demand plays a crucial role in Bitcoin’s valuation. Bitcoin has a 21 million coin hard cap on its supply, introducing scarcity to the digital currency. Miners will no longer receive new Bitcoin for verifying transactions once that cap is reached.

供求的基本经济原理在比特币的估值中起着至关重要的作用。比特币的供应量有 2100 万枚硬性上限，这导致了数字货币的稀缺性。一旦达到上限，矿工将不再收到新的比特币来验证交易。

Similarly, an event called the Bitcoin halving halves the reward for mining new blocks every four years (approximately), reducing the rate at which new BTC enters the market supply. As supply growth slows, if demand remains steady or increases, it can lead to higher Bitcoin prices.

同样，一个名为“比特币减半”的事件使每四年（大约）开采新区块的奖励减半，从而降低了新比特币进入市场供应的速度。随着供应增长放缓，如果需求保持稳定或增加，可能会导致比特币价格上涨。

Bitcoin halving history

Competition and news

竞争和新闻

Bitcoin competes with numerous alternative cryptocurrencies, such as Ether (ETH) and Dogecoin (DOGE), each with unique features that attract investor interest. Additionally, news and media coverage can significantly impact investor sentiment, driving price fluctuations based on perceptions of Bitcoin’s future prospects.

比特币与以太坊（ETH）和狗狗币（DOGE）等众多替代加密货币竞争，每种加密货币都具有吸引投资者兴趣的独特功能。此外，新闻和媒体报道可以显着影响投资者的情绪，根据对比特币未来前景的看法推动价格波动。

Cost of production

生产成本

The cost of producing Bitcoin encompasses not only direct expenses like infrastructure and electricity for miners but also indirect costs related to the complexity of the cryptographic challenges they must solve. These costs contribute to establishing a baseline or “break-even” point for miners, affecting the lowest price at which they might consider it economically viable to mine Bitcoin.

生产比特币的成本不仅包括矿工的基础设施和电力等直接费用，还包括与他们必须解决的加密挑战的复杂性相关的间接成本。这些成本有助于为矿工建立基线或“收支平衡”点，影响他们认为开采比特币在经济上可行的最低价格。

This break-even point is often referred to as the “floor price” in the context of Bitcoin mining, representing the minimum price at which mining Bitcoin can be profitable when considering operational costs.

在比特币挖矿中，这个盈亏平衡点通常被称为“底价”，代表在考虑运营成本时挖掘比特币可以盈利的最低价格。

Moreover, the Bitcoin network adjusts the difficulty of its cryptographic puzzles in response to the overall mining power, influencing how quickly new Bitcoin are produced. These adjustments can either decelerate or accelerate the rate of Bitcoin creation, affecting the overall supply and, subsequently, its market price.

此外，比特币网络会根据整体挖矿能力调整其密码谜题的难度，从而影响新比特币的生产速度。这些调整可能会减慢或加快比特币的创造速度，从而影响整体供应，进而影响其市场价格。

Regulation

规定

Cryptocurrency regulations are constantly changing, with some countries taking a friendly approach to crypto, such as El Salvador, which made Bitcoin legal tender in 2021, and others taking a less friendly approach to crypto, such as China, which formally banned crypto transactions outright in 2019. Regulatory developments can significantly impact Bitcoin’s market dynamics, creating uncertainty that may affect its price.

加密货币法规不断变化，一些国家对加密货币采取了友好的态度，例如萨尔瓦多，该国于 2021 年使比特币成为法定货币，而其他国家则对加密货币采取了不太友好的态度，例如中国，该国在 2021 年正式禁止了加密货币交易。 2019 年。监管发展可能会对比特币的市场动态产生重大影响，从而产生可能影响其价格的不确定性。

When authorities introduce restrictive measures, it can exert downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price. Conversely, regulatory actions that enhance market accessibility, like approving spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States and improving security measures, can foster greater market participation and potentially lead to an increase in Bitcoin’s price.

当当局采取限制措施时，可能会对比特币的价格施加下行压力。相反，增强市场准入的监管行动，例如在美国批准现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）和改善安全措施，可以促进更大的市场参与，并可能导致比特币价格上涨。

Why is the Bitcoin price so volatile?

为什么比特币价格如此波动？

Uncertainty regarding the intrinsic value of Bitcoin and BTC’s future price makes it a highly volatile asset.

比特币内在价值和比特币未来价格的不确定性使其成为一种高度波动的资产。

The amount of new Bitcoin entering the supply decreases steadily every four years in the halving, decreasing the asset’s inflation rate over time. According to CompaniesMarketcap, Bitcoin is the 10th-largest asset by market cap at the time of writing and is no longer a niche asset but a significant player in the broader financial landscape. Moreover, media coverage can disproportionately affect asset prices, and this phenomenon is not exclusive to Bitcoin.

在减半期间，进入供应的新比特币数量每四年稳步减少，随着时间的推移，资产的通货膨胀率降低。根据 CompaniesMarketcap 的数据，截至撰写本文时，比特币是市值第十大资产，不再是一种利基资产，而是更广泛的金融领域的重要参与者。此外，媒体报道会对资产价格产生不成比例的影响，这种现象并非比特币独有。

However, the immediacy and ubiquity of information today, facilitated by digital media and social media platforms, means that news (positive or negative) can rapidly influence investor sentiment and, consequently, asset prices across the board. This effect is amplified in highly speculative markets where investor sentiment plays a crucial role, as is often the case with cryptocurrencies.

然而，在数字媒体和社交媒体平台的推动下，当今信息的即时性和普遍性意味着新闻（正面或负面）可以迅速影响投资者的情绪，从而全面影响资产价格。这种效应在高度投机的市场中会被放大，投资者的情绪起着至关重要的作用，加密货币通常就是这种情况。

The approval of U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs on Jan. 11 significantly impacted Bitcoin’s price, attracting institutional capital and increasing demand. As a result, at the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin has surged by 33% since Jan. 11 as traditional finance investors and institutions rallied to invest.

1 月 11 日美国现货比特币 ETF 的批准对比特币的价格产生了重大影响，吸引了机构资本并增加了需求。截至本文撰写时，随着传统金融投资者和机构纷纷出手投资，比特币价格自 1 月 11 日以来已飙升 33%。

Considering this high volatility, can the Bitcoin price go to zero? Such a scenario is highly unlikely but technically possible under extreme conditions, such as a catastrophic technological failure undermining the blockchain’s security or a complete loss of confidence by all users and investors. However, these scenarios are highly improbable due to Bitcoin’s decentralized nature, widespread adoption, and the robustness of its underlying technology.

考虑到如此高的波动性，比特币价格可以归零吗？这种情况极不可能发生，但在极端条件下在技术上是可能的，例如破坏区块链安全的灾难性技术故障或所有用户和投资者完全丧失信心。然而，由于比特币的去中心化性质、广泛采用及其底层技术的稳健性，这些情况极不可能发生。

Moreover, layer-2 innovations like the Lightning Network aim to solve usability and scalability problems, which could improve the value proposition of Bitcoin. Unlike Ethereum’s ERC-20 token standard, which facilitates the creation of tokens and smart contracts on its network, Bitcoin, by design, does not natively support complex smart contracts or token standards.

此外，像闪电网络这样的第二层创新旨在解决可用性和可扩展性问题，这可以提高比特币的价值主张。与以太坊的 ERC-20 代币标准（该标准有助于在其网络上创建代币和智能合约）不同，比特币在设计上本身并不支持复杂的智能合约或代币标准。

Nonetheless, innovative solutions are being developed to extend Bitcoin’s capabilities in this area. For instance, developments like the RSK (Rootstock) platform are bridging this gap by introducing smart contract functionality to the Bitcoin ecosystem.

尽管如此，创新的解决方案正在开发中，以扩展比特币在这一领域的功能。例如，RSK（Rootstock）平台等开发项目正在通过向比特币生态系统引入智能合约功能来弥补这一差距。

Additionally, the BRC-20 token standard represents an innovative approach to introducing tokenization capabilities directly on the Bitcoin blockchain. As an experimental standard, BRC-20 aims to enable the creation, minting and transfer of fungible tokens, akin to how the ERC-20 standard functions on Ethereum and other Ethereum Virtual Machine-compatible networks.

此外，BRC-20 代币标准代表了一种直接在比特币区块链上引入代币化功能的创新方法。作为一项实验性标准，BRC-20 旨在实现可替代代币的创建、铸造和转移，类似于 ERC-20 标准在以太坊和其他以太坊虚拟机兼容网络上的运作方式。

What will happen if Bitcoin's price crashes to zero?

如果比特币价格跌至零会发生什么？

If BTC's price drops to zero, it will impact the traders, institutional investors, price of other digital currencies, cryptocurrency enterprises and the whole financial system.

如果BTC价格跌至零，将会对交易者、机构投资者、其他数字货币的价格、加密货币企业以及整个金融体系产生影响。

Now, assuming that BTC's price declines to zero, it will impact the price of other cryptocurrencies. As a result, many investors could just withdraw (completely or substantially) to reduce losses, depending on their type of investment.

现在，假设BTC的价格跌至零，它将影响其他加密货币的价格。因此，许多投资者可以根据其投资类型直接撤资（完全或大幅撤资）以减少损失。

Large institutional investors may be particularly at risk because more and more have made larger investments to diversify their portfolios. The most exposed would be those who invested more recently at high prices or in crypto derivatives, and they would need to liquidate other assets to fulfill margin calls.

大型机构投资者可能面临特别大的风险，因为越来越多的机构投资者进行了更大规模的投资以实现投资组合多元化。受影响最大的是那些最近以高价或加密货币衍生品进行投资的人，他们需要清算其他资产来满足追加保证金的要求。

Customers may lose faith in a system that appears to be crumbling, affecting cryptocurrency enterprises like Coinbase, Binance, etc., that depend on customers for transaction flow to generate revenue and funding/investments to grow. Investments in these companies may also stop altogether or significantly decline. Additionally, such enterprises may no longer be able to hire, pay or attract the personnel necessary to run and expand them.

客户可能会对一个看似崩溃的系统失去信心，从而影响 Coinbase、Binance 等加密货币企业，这些企业依赖客户的交易流来产生收入和资金/投资来增长。对这些公司的投资也可能完全停止或大幅下降。此外，此类企业可能不再能够雇用、支付或吸引运营和扩张所需的人员。

Furthermore, the contagion may, at least temporarily, have an impact on the rest of the financial system due to:

此外，由于以下原因，疫情蔓延可能至少暂时对金融体系的其他部分产生影响：

Downward pressure on other assets such as those sold in a fire sale to raise money to meet obligations, such as paying remuneration, margin calls, maintaining premises, etc., and

其他资产面临下行压力，例如为了筹集资金以履行支付报酬、追加保证金、维护经营场所等义务而进行的甩卖出售的资产，以及